A stalled front will lead to an active 12-hour period of weather. Beyond that, a transition to typical late spring conditions is expected.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Humidity will be back in force by Wednesday. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast as a weak front stalls over the area. Since the front will not need heating to activate precipitation, the chance for rain will be in place from near dawn through dusk. A day of more clouds will also keep high temperatures closer to 80 degrees. As a reminder, warm season thunderstorms can easily turn strong with downpours, frequent lightning and gusty wind. Showers should ease overnight with lows near 70 degrees.

Up Next: Thursday looks a bit quieter but Friday through Memorial Day, we should see the traditional pop-up afternoon showers or thunderstorms—some days busier than others—though it is tough to identify which ones until we get closer. Temperatures will steadily warm through the week as well with high temperatures getting close to 90 by Thursday. An upper level disturbance will likely lead to an increase of rain and thunderstorm activity early next week.

It has been a while since we talked about those rain chances, or percentages on the forecast board often seen during the warm season. Here is a quick reminder about what those mean for the WBRZ Weather 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area.

10-30% - Isolated: a few locations receive measurable rain

30-60% - Scattered: part to half of the area receives measurable rain

60-100% - Widespread: almost all of the area receives measurable rain 

Keep in mind, those chances tell nothing about timing. For instance, 100% DOES NOT mean it will rain all day. We will be sure to provide information in our forecasts as to when you can expect rain when chances are on the board. MORE: https://www.wbrz.com/news/a-chance-to-remember

The Tropics: Tropical Storm Arthur was located over 100 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina as of 5am Monday morning. Moving northeast at 10-15mph, Arthur is expected to accelerate on Monday and turn east on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds of 45mph could increase slightly before the system begins to lose tropical characteristics on Tuesday.

THE EXPLANATION:

A weak front separating warm, humid Gulf air and dry continental air will stall across the region on Wednesday. The front is expected to be most active across the I-10/12 corridor during the daylight hours with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible from sunrise to sunset. The same conditions go for Wednesday that isolated gusty storms and heavy rain are both possible. The front will drift back to the north and diminish on Thursday allowing humid Gulf of Mexico air to push inland. As a result, Friday through Memorial Day will bring a familiar and repetitive pattern of early warmth and humidity followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. That is, some will see them, some will not and no single day will be a washout. Again, any of these warm season thunderstorms can be attention getting with downpours, frequent lightning and gusty wind.      
--Josh

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