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Return flow and the next rain showers

11 months 2 weeks 4 days ago Tuesday, May 01 2018 May 1, 2018 May 01, 2018 6:16 AM May 01, 2018 in News
Source: WBRZ Weather

Tuesday morning started off about four degrees cooler than expected thanks to a delayed return of humidity. It will not hold off much longer though. Unfortunately, after a dry weekend, another wet one may be ahead.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: No major changes will come to the weather forecast on Tuesday. Partly sunny skies are anticipated with high temperatures climbing into the mid 80s. Onshore flow, southeast winds of 5-10mph, could result in a brief, isolated shower but just about all locations should stay dry. Overnight will be mostly clear with low temperatures in the upper 60s.

Up Next: Continued southerly winds will result in a bit more stickiness through the end of the week. Skies will be partly sunny with rain chances almost zero. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the upper 60s. Into the weekend, a cold front will approach the Gulf of Mexico. Since this system will move slowly, rain chances are expected to be elevated on Saturday. Thunderstorms are likely as well, but severe weather is not a big threat as it looks right now. If this front can progress south or dissipate, weather for the second half of the weekend could shape up to be nice.

THE EXPLANATION:

An upper level ridge will move from west to east across the forecast area. A surface high pressure system will move off the U.S. East Coast resulting in southeast winds. While a sea breeze could feasibly create a shower, the subsidence aloft due to the ridge should suppress most convection. Only a brief, isolated shower is possible Tuesday and Wednesday. The ridge and surface high will allow highs and lows to end up a couple of degrees above average. The upper ridge will strengthen over the northeastern Gulf for the second half of the week essentially eliminating any rain chance. A cold front associated with a shortwave trough will approach the area this weekend, substantially increasing rain and thunderstorms chances, especially Saturday. It is still unclear as to if this front will stall, move into the Gulf or just dissipate. Of course the latter two scenarios would result in much lower rain chances for Sunday.    

--Dr. Josh

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