A warm front and upper level disturbance will combine to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. Wind gusts up to 40mph and downpours are possible. Most of the activity is expected to occur north of I-12. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s.

THE FORECAST:

Sunday and Sunday night: On Sunday, as winds shift from east to south at 5-10mph, expect thermometers to push 80 degrees. After clouds in the morning, some sun is expected to break through during the afternoon, with an isolated shower possible later in the day. Overnight, any showers will subside and low temperatures will be a bit more stuffy in the upper 60s. 

Up Next:  The first full week of spring is looking warmer and drier than average across the Baton Rouge area and southeast United States. For reference, average temperatures are highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 50s. While an isolated shower will still be possible on Monday, the rest of the week should feature partly sunny afternoons with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. One or two locations could clip 90 degrees. Record high temperatures could fall at Metro Airport Wednesday through Friday. Lows will be in the upper 60s and low 70s.

THE EXPLANATION:

An upper level wave of low pressure will race across the southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Another disturbance will mirror the stronger northern wave and move from the Texas Coast across the local area. These two features will combine to create a round of showers and thunderstorms overnight. More activity will occur north of I-12 into southwest Mississippi. The lack of daytime warming will help abate some of the energy available for thunderstorms and therefore severe weather is not expected. A few storms could have wind gusts up to 40mph and brief downpours leading to an inch or so.

Additional weak impulses in the mid to upper levels may create isolated showers later Sunday through Monday. A warm front will transition north of the area by Monday afternoon establishing southerly surface flow that will anchor through much of next week. Additionally, a ridge of high pressure aloft will strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico leading to subsidence warming Wednesday through Friday. As a result, dry conditions are anticipated with record warmth likely. Thursday and Friday may even challenge 90 degrees. An upper level trough and associated cold front may attempt to tamp this warmth down by next weekend but that is too far out to project with confidence.     

--Josh

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