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No major surprises for first weekend of August

1 year 2 months 1 week ago Friday, August 03 2018 Aug 3, 2018 August 03, 2018 5:50 AM August 03, 2018 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Into a usual early August pattern, the only weather forecast changes come in subtle adjustments to daily rain chances and therefore temperatures just a few degrees on either side of average.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: As a weak front dissipates, moisture will be able to retreat back to the northwest and rain coverage may pick up a touch on Friday. In addition to this, the slightly more comfortable air we have noticed for the last two days will also fade as humidity makes an expected return. High temperatures should reach about 90 degrees prior to any showers and thunderstorms. Overnight will be mostly cloudy with spotty showers and lows on the low to mid 70s.

Up Next: In terms of showers and thunderstorms, Saturday is expected to be the most active of the 7-Day forecast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, primarily during the afternoon hours. A morning jog or round of golf will be in fine shape though. Little variation in temperatures is expected with highs near 90 and lows in the low 70s. This will change by late in the weekend and early next week. Less rain and cloud cover will be around; therefore, temperatures will climb a little higher and stay hotter, longer. Beyond that, the next time higher rain chances will return is late next week.  

The Tropics: There are currently no active storms in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. No development is expected over the next 5 days.    

THE EXPLANATION:

A stubborn trough will begin to retreat west on Friday while weakening. This will allow more of an easterly wind flow and therefore a return of some moisture at the surface and up into the atmosphere. Afternoon rain coverage will bump up into the 30-50 percent range Friday and especially Saturday as a result. Additionally, the relatively comfortable air experienced Wednesday and Thursday will revert to standard August humidity. Into next week, a 500mb ridge in the Eastern U.S. will likely merge with another in the Southwest leading to a reduction in convection and therefore high temperatures climbing 1-3 degrees warmer and topping out in the mid 90s. Lows will also be closer to average in the mid 70s. Late next week, another upper level disturbance and possibly a front will return higher rain chances. 

--Dr. Josh

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