THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Mostly sunny skies for your Friday, with showers and storms developing through the afternoon. Storm cells will be building along a sea breeze front that will push onshore and north into the region. The rain should stay south of the Baton Rouge area, but some cells could push in from 2 PM to 6 PM. Heavy downpours will be possible with these storms, so localized flooding is possible. Temperatures will warm to an afternoon high near 90° with light winds out of the north. Heat Index values will be approaching the triple digits, especially for areas that stay dry. Showers taper off by 7 PM, under partly cloudy skies and overnight lows near 73°.

Up Next:  Spotty to isolated showers and storms will develop through the afternoon today, with rain chances increasing over the weekend.

The Tropics: An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southeast of the Lesser Antilles continues to generate limited showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development as the system approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, but increasing to a 40% chance within the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

The overall weather pattern will not change much over the next 7 days. In the upper levels, we are sandwiched in between two large high pressure systems. One high is located over New Mexico with the other between the east coast and Bermuda. The high over the Southwest U.S. will be shifting slight west over the weekend, which will allow for the Bermuda high to have more influence on our weather. This means that our prevailing winds will shift from northerly to more southerly, helping to increase the amount of Gulf moisture that is able to move onshore. Showers will become more scattered Saturday and Sunday, but stay confined through the afternoon and evening hours due to daytime heating. Heavy rainfall will be occurring in some of these storm cells, so localized flooding is possible into next week. There will also be a potential for 30+ wind gusts as well. Rain become more isolated through the midweek next week, especially as we near next weekend as the Southwest high pressure begins to build and shift slightly east.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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