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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Last call for rainfall?

1 year 3 months 17 hours ago Wednesday, July 18 2018 Jul 18, 2018 July 18, 2018 5:45 AM July 18, 2018 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to keep temperatures in check. That trend will end by the weekend. The Tuesday rainfall forecast did not pan out great. Showers and thunderstorms were more isolated than scattered, only bringing rain to 30 percent of the forecast area--mainly in southwest Mississippi.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Despite mostly cloudy skies, thermometers should still be able to reach 90 degrees by early afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will then develop, limiting heat for many locations. Of course, any summer storms can produce frequent lightning, downpours and even gusty wind. Measurable rain is expected for 40 percent of the WBRZ Weather forecast area with locations south of I-10 most likely to receive some afternoon precipitation. Overnight will be partly cloudy with lows in the mid 70s.

Up Next: Thursday will be a third and final day with any showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. At this point though, forecast guidance is showing pretty bleak chances. Any hope for precipitation will then quickly diminish by the weekend allowing thermometers to bubble back up in a big way. Some of the hottest air of the season is expected Friday through Sunday. Thanks to very high dew point temperatures, (humidity) feels-like temperatures will be between 105 and 110 degrees. Nighttime lows will struggle to leave the 80s.    

The Tropics: There are currently no active storms in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. No development is expected over the next 5 days.    

THE EXPLANATION:

The Baton Rouge area sits on the eastern periphery a stubborn 500mb ridge. Meanwhile, a northern stream trough will penetrate the Eastern U.S., which should continue the slight uptick in showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Along with broad lift and more instability caused by the trough, precipitable water will stay above the seasonable average, and continue the threat for isolated high rain totals. Unlike, Tuesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely require some daytime warmth to initiate. Downpours, frequent lightning and gusty wind will be possible with any boomers in the afternoon. Slow moving storms will be capable of dropping a quick inch or two of rain and therefore could create some nuisance flooding. By the weekend, the upper level ridge will return with vengeance. Not only will the ridge suppress convection and disallow any afternoon cooling from rain, but also lead to increased compressional warming and prolonged, dangerous heat. Highs will easily reach the mid and potentially upper 90s. Leftover surface moisture from midweek rain will have dew points running high and heat indices could be between 105-110 degrees. The National Weather Service says standby for the possibility of heat warnings.   

--Dr. Josh

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