Increased clouds now, increased rain chances this weekend
Milder temperatures on Thursday will give way to another cool down on Friday. In two parts of the forecast, rain chances are increasing.
Today and Tonight: Increased cloudiness can be expected on what will otherwise be a quiet day. Temperatures will warm a bit more than on Tuesday and Wednesday, reaching the middle 60s with light, southwest winds. A cold front will move into the region overnight into Friday, leading to a continued buildup of clouds and possibly a spotty shower south of I-10 by daybreak. Lows will be in the low 40s.
Up Next: A few showers will remain possible for the southern half of the forecast area, especially near the coast, through early Friday. Due to the slow moving front, cloud cover may be an issue for much of day, limiting high temperatures to the mid 50s. Skies will clear late. After a chilly start, Saturday will be seasonable with occasional peeks of sun. Highs will push 70 degrees by Sunday but rain and thunder now appear likely. A washout is possible and some locations may get a healthy soak of up to an inch. It now looks as though showers and thunderstorms may carry into early next week before a break. Long-term trends suggest that temperatures will moderate before the end of next week. Leading into Christmas, a stormy pattern may unfold with widespread rain across the Eastern U.S. before a cold front pulls temperatures back down. For many, that could be considered an improvement in the Baton Rouge area over record warmth from the previous years.
The Explanation: With a weak boundary over the coastal plain some mid-level positive vorticity advection may help to stir up some clouds. Another cold front will drop in from the north tonight into tomorrow. Whereas earlier in the week it appeared that this front will could by w2ith little fanfare like its predecessor, some adjustments will be made to the going forecast. The slow moving front will enter the Gulf of Mexico early on Friday. A stream of moisture from the southwest will move across this boundary, upsloping and creating a stratus deck stretching as far north as Mississippi. Closer to the coast, enough moisture is expected to be available to allow some showers to develop. Rain will be possible along and south of I-10 through the first half of Friday, with clouds holding on a bit longer. Sun may be tough to come by on Friday, and therefore temperatures will remain in the mid 50s. Another cold night is then expected until the broad trough responsible for days of at or below average temperatures will move east into the Atlantic Ocean. Moisture will begin to rise as surface high pressure shifts east and southerly flow develops. A fast moving upper level system will bring the next chance of rain on Sunday and into Monday. Forecast models have come into slightly better agreement on the timing of this system, with the other discrepancy in end time. The ECMWF eliminates precipitation by Monday while the GFS and GEM hold on to rain into Monday.
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