After a chilly Fat Tuesday, quiet weather and warming temperatures will round out the week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Mardi Gras will be the coldest day of the upcoming week—though still sunny and dry. Highs will barely climb into the low 50s with continued northwesterly winds of about 10-15mph and gusts to 30mph. A *WIND ADVISORY* is once again in effect from 9am - 5pm. The nighttime hours will hover near freezing under clear skies with lighter breezes.

What’s Ahead? A gradual warming trend will begin on Wednesday. Under sunny skies, the afternoon will find high temperatures in the upper 50s. More sun is anticipated for Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 60s and perhaps low 70s. Thursday Morning will be about 10 degrees cooler than Friday Morning with a low in the upper 30s. Another weak front is pegged for the weekend, with just a few passing clouds expected at this time.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: The general trough in the east, ridge in the west pattern will continue through Wednesday. High pressure in the Midwest will maintain northwesterly winds through Mardi Gras with cold air advection continuing. The result will be below average temperatures—a chilly Fat Tuesday will have highs struggling for the low 50s. The upper trough will shrink and migrate northeast on Thursday allowing a weak surface depression to develop between the strong high in the east and the next dropping into the Upper Midwest. A pseudo warm front will attempt to develop ahead of this depression and temperatures will respond for the final two days of the week by lifting above average in the afternoon. That next high will drive a cold front through the region into the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday, once again restoring below average temperatures for the second half of the weekend. This cold spell looks shorter lived however with the western ridge sliding east by early next week and ensemble means indicating above average temperatures along the Gulf Coast. A weak upper disturbance may bring the next shot at rain Monday—at the earliest.  

--Josh 

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