A cold front will slip into the Gulf on Monday bringing a more comfortable feel. That will not last long though; the same boundary will come back north as a warm front on Tuesday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Showers will continue to end through the morning hours with returning sunshine into the afternoon. While still above average, compared to last week, temperatures will be cooler. Highs will top out in the low 70s with lower humidity and northeast winds of 5-10mph. Overnight will be partly cloudy with lows in the upper 50s.

Up Next: Tuesday and Wednesday will bring more unseasonably warm temperatures, clouds and possibly a few showers. Another, more potent cold front will dip through the area on Thursday morning with more showers and thunderstorms, but skies will clear as we approach the weekend. In fact, temperatures may even drop into the 40s a few nights, bringing our temperatures a bit BELOW average, compared to the record-breaking warmth last week.

THE EXPLANATION:

A cold front will push south into the Gulf of Mexico through Monday allowing relatively cooler temperatures and dew points resulting in a more comfortable feel than last week. The same front is expected to slide north as a warm front on Tuesday and should be clear of the region by Tuesday night. As the boundary pushes through, an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in the return flow.  The southeast ridge responsible for last week’s warmth will nudge into the central Gulf as well returning well above average temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. This ridge should keep rain at bay on Wednesday and send thermometers into the low 80s. The warmer readings will not last long because a stronger shortwave trough will drive a cold front into the area on Thursday. A line of showers and thunderstorms appears likely at this point with a shot at some stronger storms northward into central Mississippi. Locally, instability and upper level winds should be a little less than favorable for nasty storms. On the other side of this front, the Baton Rouge area is likely to enjoy a stretch of sunshine and more seasonable temperatures. By next weekend, lows could dip all the way into the 40s, marking the coolest temperatures since mid-February.  

--Dr. Josh

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