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Thursday morning video forecast
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Dry conditions will not last very long. Thursday and Friday will allow for enough time to tame your lawn and spend some leisure time outside.
THE FORECAST:
Today and Tonight: Mostly sunny skies are in store for your Thursday. Temperatures will be heating up to near 93 degrees with heat index values in the triple digits. A few showers are possible in the afternoon, mainly north of Baton Rouge. Overnight tonight it will be muggy with temperatures near 78.
Up Next: Friday also looks dry with temperatures near 92. Rain will be back in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday as we expect a front to move through the area. Between 40-50% will be associated with a front moving through Saturday afternoon. That rain will linger into Sunday as well. High temperatures hovering right around 90 degrees and overnight lows in the mid 70s.
The Tropics: Tropical Storm Isaias was named late Wednesday. Due to a strong upper-level steering pattern, it is unlikely Isaias will enter the Gulf of Mexico. There are no major changes to the local forecast due to Isaias.
The center of Tropical Storm Isaias is located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 67.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola late today and near the Southeastern Bahamas by early Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall in the Dominican Republic later today, with re-strengthening forecast on Friday and Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station in Yabucoa Tanque de Agua reported sustained winds of 52 mph (83 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph (94 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
THE EXPLANATION:
Precipitable water values are between 2-2.1 inches. That is still plenty of moisture for some afternoon rain, but we will see much less of it. An upper-level trough is dropping over the Great Lakes region. As this moves off the east, high pressure will build over the Gulf pushing out all the deep moisture. Less moisture means the air will be able to heat and cool more efficiently and highs will have no trouble reaching the 90s. A line of showers and storm associated with a front will move through the area on Friday evening likely diminishing before reaching the Baton Rouge area. We are keeping a close eye on development because there will be large amounts of CAPE and plenty of available dry air for entrainment. Showers and storms on Saturday evening will spark up ahead of a boundary. Peak heating hours will be most active.
--Marisa
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