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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Thursday morning video forecast

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One more wet day is ahead before a much needed drying trend commences. The National Weather Service has issued a *FLASH FLOOD WATCH* until 6am Friday for the entire forecast area except St. James and Assumption Parishes. Stay alert to any flooded areas on local roads and find an alternate route if needed.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A storm system will push through the region on Thursday with another round of rain. Amounts of one to three inches are expected. If the highest totals fall in areas flooded last week, we could have some minor issues manifest once again. Either way, this system is moving much quicker and if flooding does occur, it should not be to the extent of what was experienced last week. Clouds will keep temperatures from fluctuating much with highs near 60. Since the area will not spend much time in the warm sector of the storm system, there will not be enough instability for severe weather. Showers will end overnight with temperatures dipping into the 40s.    

Up Next: Clouds may take their time exiting the region on Friday but a much needed dry stretch will begin with plenty of sunshine anticipated this weekend. After one day of below average temperatures and a chilly start to Saturday, conditions will be moderating through Monday. The next fast-moving, weak cold front will bring a brief, low end rain chance around  Monday night.  

THE EXPLANATION:

On Thursday, a surface low will move northeastward across Louisiana bringing a swath of moderate to heavy rain into the region. This path will keep the local area north of the warm sector, so severe weather will not be an issue. Instability will be lacking, so we are unlikely to see any thunderstorms at all. However, atmospheric moisture will be near the maximum for the time of year, which means the potential for heavy rain is there. The speed of the overall system appears to be much quicker than the most recent flooding event. That should reduce flash flooding severity. Regardless, a FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in place through 6am Friday as heavy rain in a short time will cause issues due to current ground saturation. Generally, 1 to 3 inches will fall and that is at the upper end of what should be manageable runoff for area rivers. Anything more and we could face some minor issues again. Significant drying will come by the end of the week as the associated cold front crosses and upper level trough moves east.

Colder and drier air will settle into the region for the weekend. A strong surface high pressure system will build into the area Friday. Highs will struggle to reach 50 for areas west of I-55 as cold air advection ramps up. That trend will continue into the overnight period. With clear skies and light winds, good radiational cooling conditions combined with falling dew points will allow thermometers to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s across the forecast area. That will pretty much be it for below average temperatures as the associated upper level trough races eastward. Moderating temperatures are expected each day this weekend, but finally a few days with no rain chances. Forecast models do show a fast moving front coming through early next week. Timing is slightly uncertain but late Monday to early Tuesday is the best guess at the moment. Either way, impacts look to be minimal with only light showers expected.

--Dr. Josh

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