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Monday morning video forecast
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Starting the week hot and steamy.
THE FORECAST:
Today and Tonight: Monday will see plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the afternoon near 96 degrees. Heat index values will have no problem hitting 100. In terms of rain, it will be very spotty. Any showers and storms will need power from the sun and will likely pop up in the late afternoon. Shower and storm activity will clear out overnight with temperatures getting down to near 76.
Up Next: The weather story this week is the increasing rain chances. Today will be the driest day and starting tomorrow rain chances will go up little by little. When rain chances go up, temperatures go down. Tuesday highs will be near 95 with 30% rain coverage. Wednesday temperatures will be near 93 with 40% rain coverage. Thursday and Friday look like the wettest days in the forecast with near 50% rain coverage and highs near 91. The humidity is back and overnight lows will not be able to cool much past the mid-70s.
The Tropics: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a vigorous tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for additional development to occur, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the disturbance moves generally westward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the week. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
THE EXPLANATION:
The southeast US is currently in a ridging pattern allowing for temperatures to be above normal. Our overall flow is out of the south, but precipitable water values are only near 1.75” (compares to the 2” or higher we have seen so far this summer). Showers and storms will need daytime heating to bubble up this week. Outflow boundaries will be a good indicator of where storms will form in the evening. Moisture levels will continue to increase with the persistent southerly flow. Thursday and Friday will have the highest PWAT values and likely the most rain coverage this week.
-Marisa
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