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Wednesday PM Forecast: you know the drill

2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago Wednesday, July 27 2022 Jul 27, 2022 July 27, 2022 4:46 PM July 27, 2022 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

The seemingly endless routine of early sun and late thunderstorms will continue. Remember the positive to the repetition—in July and August, really the only alternative is interference from the tropics, so repetitive doesn’t sound that bad!

Next 24 Hours: Expect mostly clear skies overnight with low temperatures in the mid 70s. Thursday will be partly sunny early with high temperatures bubbling up into the low 90s. A crop of showers and thunderstorms will flare during the afternoon hours before fizzling by nightfall.  

Up Next: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to end the workweek as well. Something to keep an eye on is the possibility of action starting a little bit earlier on Friday. A weak upper level disturbance could enhance showers and storms on Saturday followed by a decrease as it exits on Sunday and Monday. Overall, there is not much variation expected over the forecast period though. Days with more activity will have highs closer to average in the low 90s. Days with less activity will have highs topping out in the mid 90s and staying there longer. Given the ample humidity in place, any of those drier days could warrant a heat advisory from the National Weather Service due to feels-like temperatures over 108 degrees. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next five days.  

The Explanation: An upper level ridge centered across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley will continue to influence the local weather this week. The relatively small size of this ridge will create a gradient in rain coverage across the forecast area. Closer to the coast will be farther from the center of the ridge and therefore have a better chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Farther inland will be closer to the center of the ridge and therefore have a lesser chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. The atmosphere will remain moist and unstable leading to briefly heavy storms with downpours and frequent lightning. Temperatures will not stray far from average with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Into the weekend, rain coverage will likely trim back a bit. One item that could change this is a weak, upper level trough of low pressure moving west-northwest from the Bahamas toward the Gulf of Mexico. If this subtle impulse can hold together, it would provide cooler temperatures aloft and therefore more instability for a continuation of (at least) scattered showers and thunderstorms—especially on Friday and Saturday. Actually, the colder air aloft would even lend to some of the storms being capable of gusty winds. Either way, even if the trough makes it here, it would exit by the end of the weekend followed by a strengthening upper level ridge of high pressure, which could result in a downturn in rain coverage and return heat advisory conditions to the region.

--Josh

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