Two quiet days followed by another severe weather threat
Two fairly quiet weather days are ahead before eyes return to skies and the threat for severe storms on Thursday.
Today and Tonight: For Tuesday, expect a partly sunny sky with high temperatures in the mid 80s. A shower cannot be ruled out but rain chances look too low to mention. Winds will remain southerly at 10mph. Overnight, look for mostly clear skies followed by some areas of fog before sunrise. Lows will bottom out in the mid 60s.
Up Next: Wednesday should repeat with warm and tranquil weather. By Thursday, a storm system will roll into the region with more showers and thunderstorms. Once again (as is typical for the spring season), severe storms will be possible. As of Tuesday Morning, the event looks to come during the second half of the day with gusty wind, hail and downpours being the main concerns. Exact timing and specific threats will become clear as we get closer. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire forecast area in a “slight risk” (2/5) for severe weather. On the other side of that storm system, humidity may go down a touch but temperatures will remain above average. Another short stretch of sunny days is expected before the return of showers and storms late weekend.
With another threat for severe weather, now would be a great time to review your safety plan. Develop a line of communication with family and friends. Know the difference between a watch and a warning and predetermine the safe place you will go if warnings are issued. CLICK HERE for more on severe weather safety.
THE SCIENCE: A slight ridge in the upper levels should keep convection limited for the next two afternoons. Temperature will remain warm and southerly wind swill keep dew points in the low 60s and thus humidity elevated. The next shortwave trough will be moving from the Midwest to the Mid-Mississippi River Valley on Thursday. An associated cold front will also traverse the region, passing over the central Gulf Coast. Storms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning in western Louisiana and will track northeastward into the local area. Strong wind fields with sufficient moisture, instability and uplift will promote the risk of severe storms, and some model solutions indicate the potential for a more widespread event than last Saturday. Once the upper trough axis slides east, another brief lull is expected for Friday and Saturday. With an actual frontal passaging possible, though temperature may not respond much, slightly drier air may reduce humidity for a day or two. Overnight lows could dip into the upper 50s. The next in our series of potent upper waves will enter the region next weekend. Though there are some timing differences with the GFS slower and the European faster, both indicate that this wave takes a further south track and thus could pose an elevated severe weather risk to the local area. Stay tuned as we hash out the details!