The persistent pattern will continue into the new week. No full day rain-outs are expected, but many locations stand a good shot at showers and thunderstorms.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: After fog diminishes, partly sunny skies will welcome the new week. Clouds will build through the morning leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. Heavy rainfall is possible in some storms, which will last into early evening. Highs will top out near 91 degrees. Showers will die out by midnight followed by partly cloudy skies and lows near 75 degrees.

Up Next: A broad upper level trough is focused over the eastern seaboard as am upper level ridge of high pressure stays pinned to the four corners region. Between these two features, the local area has had enough instability with daytime warming to produce daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This weather pattern will stick around through the middle of the week. By Friday, the upper level ridge is expected to nudge westward which will stabilize and dry out the atmosphere. The result will be not as many showers and slightly warmer high temperatures.

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet at this time. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days.

The Mississippi River: On Sunday, the gauge at Baton Rouge dropped below flood stage for the first time since January 5. This ended a record smashing run of 212 consecutive days above flood stage. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. The water level will continue a steady fall over the next few weeks. This drop will also alleviate high water on the Atchafalaya River from Krotz Springs to Morgan City. Lingering backwater flooding near Bayou Chene, Stephensville and Lake Palourde will subside.  

THE EXPLANATION:

It seems like the daily routine of nocturnal showers and thunderstorms offshore and afternoon action inland will continue. The upper level ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners region will move a bit east by the end of the week lessening the coverage in showers and thunderstorms. However, the ridge will not fully envelop the region and so a northwesterly flow will continue aloft. This will still allow some showers and thunderstorms to traverse the region and while coverage will not be as high, the risk for a few to be strong could increase.

--Josh

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