Showers will break away Friday with a brief lull in activity. On Sunday, pay attention to the weather as severe weather is possible.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Clouds and showers may linger Friday morning followed by some returning sun and cooler highs in the low 70s. With northeasterly winds, expect overnight lows in the low 50s beneath partly cloudy skies.

Up Next: Drier conditions will last through Saturday morning and then a period of active, perhaps impactful weather will begin. A warm front lifting through the area from south to north will return showers and thunderstorms to the area as early as Saturday afternoon. When the associated cold front and upper level energy move into the area on Sunday, some of the thunderstorms are expected to be severe. The Storm Prediction Center is using bolder language than usual saying “an outbreak of severe thunderstorms appears possible” on Sunday. The day three outlooks places areas north of I-12 in an unusual 4/5 “moderate risk” with the remainder of the area in a 3/5 “enhanced risk” for severe weather. Everything from damaging wind gusts to hail to tornadoes will be possible. In this time of staying home with loved ones, now is a great opportunity to identify or review your severe weather plan. Find the lowest and most interior place in your home to use as a safe place if a warning is issued. Mobile Home residents should find a nearby brick and mortar home of a family member or friend as it is recommended you prioritize the near term weather threat over social distancing. CLICK HERE for some ideas. Quiet weather and below average temperatures will persist Monday through Wednesday.  

Faced with severe weather on Sunday, #SocialDistancing or #TornadoSafety? Act on the more immediate danger. If a tornado watch is issued, we recommend mobile home residents seek sturdy shelter with friends or family. Wear a mask and gloves if possible. pic.twitter.com/wkZ4QOJ0L7

— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) April 9, 2020

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 42.7’ as of Thursday morning. It is projected to crest near 43’ this weekend. The high water is primarily an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue for a few spots north and south of Baton Rouge that are not protected by levees. Unprotected low-lying areas will be flooded and agricultural operations will be impacted on the west side of the river. The grounds of the older part of Louisiana State University's campus become soggy. This includes the area around the Veterinary Medicine building, the Veterinary Medicine Annex, the stadium and ball fields. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees at this level. This comes after a year where the gauge at Baton Rouge spent a record smashing run of 212 consecutive days above flood stage between January and August. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, 2019 the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. The level is also high in New Orleans and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has opened the Bonnet Carre Spillway.

THE EXPLANATION:

Beyond morning showers, a lull in precipitation will come early Friday through early Saturday. Northerly winds will maintain cold air advection processes and keep below average temperatures in place through Saturday morning. A locations north of I-12 could even nip the upper 40s. An upper level low pressure system will advance out of the southwest U.S. on Saturday forcing a warm front to lift through the region. With warmer air surging northward, scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop late in the day. The deep upper level low pressure system will move over Texas by Sunday. As this occurs, it will begin to orient from northwest to southeast, this is called a negative tilt, and this is a reliable indicator for active weather. Rich low-level moisture will be drawn inland from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of a strengthening surface low that will move north of the local area dragging a cold front across the central Gulf Coast. Instability will work in tandem with a strong jet stream (winds aloft) to result in a very favorable environment for severe thunderstorms to develop. The combination is supportive of widespread damaging wind and strong, long-lived tornadoes. Timing is not yet clear, but will come into focus as we get closer. The front will clear to the east by Sunday night with cooler and drier conditions persisting into early next week. Please stay in touch.       

--Josh

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