We’ve been very lucky to have nice weekend weather for the last two months, but that luck runs out tomorrow.
Today and Tonight: Your Friday will offer up more sunshine and clouds with highs making it back to the mid 60s. Winds are expected to be light and easterly. Clouds will be increasing this evening with lows in the upper 40s overnight.
Up Next: Rain is expected to arrive on Saturday as a warm front sets up south of the area. On the front’s cool side, highs will remain in the upper 50s keeping a chilly feel. On Sunday, rain will continue as that warm front lifts north, allowing temperatures to climb into the 60s. After a brief lull, the setup is looking favorable for thunderstorms on Monday, a few of which could be strong—especially late. Looking ahead, much colder air is expected late next week.
Forecast Discussion: Forecast models are showing a trough digging into Mexico by Saturday. This will induce cyclogenesis off of the East Texas cool season baroclinic zone. An associated warm front will lift north through the Gulf of Mexico and overrunning precipitation will begin on Saturday. A lobe of positive vorticity suggests that Late Saturday to Early Sunday will be the most likely period for rain. The warm front is expected to lift north through Sunday placing Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi in the warm sector. By Monday, dew points will increase into the upper 60s or lower 70s and an 850mb jet will strengthen to about 50 knots as a shortwave ejects northeastward from East Texas to Arkansas. The surface low will follow a similar track, placing the forecast area in a favorable position for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting the Central Gulf Coast with a 15% chance of severe storms within 25 miles of a point. As is usual for the cool season, instability will be the main limiting factor though the auspicious surface low track may offset that. A weak cold front will kick through on Monday Night leaving a 36-48 hour stretch of mild weather before another front arrives Late Wednesday. This system will be accompanied by our coldest air so far this season with some upper 20s possible by the end of next week.
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