Hot and dry, Tropical Depression Nine turning north
The next two days will be very hot and humid with minimal chances for rain.
Today and Tonight: A mostly sunny sky will allow high temperatures to top out around 95 degrees. With dew points in the mid 70s, the feels-like temperature will range from 100-105 degrees in the afternoon. If there is a shower, it will be brief and likely closer to the coast. The overnight hours will be clear with lows in the mid 70s.
Up Next: Thursday brings a very similar forecast. By Friday, a few more clouds may bubble up with a slightly better shot at a stray shower or thunderstorm. Over the weekend, a weak front will push into the region adding enough instability to bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to about 30 percent of the area. Temperatures will be near seasonal norms with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s.
The Tropics: As of 4am Wednesday, there were four active areas being monitored in the Atlantic Basin. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on three systems.
Tropical Depression Nine is in the East Central Gulf of Mexico with a minimum central pressure of 1004mb and maximum sustained winds of 35mph. The expected northward turn has begun and the system is now moving north at 2mph. Strengthening to tropical storm status is forecast in the next 24 hours with a secondary turn to the northeast. Heavy rain and wind are expected in Florida with a landfall occurring Thursday Evening. The storm will bring no impact to Louisiana other than increased tides. For that reason, a Coastal Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday as waters could swell 2 feet above normal.
Tropical Depression Eight is east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina with a minimum central pressure of 1011mb and maximum sustained winds of 35mph. Moving to the northeast at 5mph, the system could possibly strengthen into a tropical storm while accelerating out to sea. Showers, wind and elevated tides are anticipated in Eastern North Carolina.
Hurricane Gaston is churning in the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean with maximum sustained winds of 120mph. The storm will move northeast and out to sea, speeding up and weakening by the end of the week.
Invest 90L is the latest tropical wave that has pushed off of the African Coast. The cluster of showers and thunderstorms will meet favorable conditions over the next five days and is given a 40 percent chance of further development. Given a track across the South Central Atlantic Basin, the United States will need to monitor the progress of this wave.
Certainly continue to monitor tropical forecasts as the peak of hurricane season nears. Take this time to review hurricane preparedness and have your game plan installed should it be needed.
Forecast Discussion: An upper level ridge continues to nudge eastward from the Midwest, enveloping more of the Gulf Coast. In response to this amplifying ridge, a downstream trough will dig into the Eastern United States. It is this trough that will snag Tropical Depression 9 and pull it northeastward away from Louisiana. With the ridge in place through Friday, subsidence will keep rain chances low and temperatures above average. Over the weekend, the trough axis will drive a weak front into the area. Some weak forcing associated with the trough and front may enhance rain chances just a bit, but with lower moisture content, coverage shouldn’t be too great. If the front can clear Louisiana before washing out, humidity could briefly tick down on Saturday. Some northern locations finding lows in the upper 60s is a possibility.