The first outlook for the 2022 hurricane season is out. Colorado State University is predicting an above average number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. The probability of a major hurricane strike is also above average.

This is very similar to outlooks issued in April of 2020 and 2021.

Dr. Philip Klotzbach and the research team cited an absence of El Niño and  La Niña conditions likely to transition into neutral ENSO phase.

As defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short. Keep in mind that El Niño and La Niña do not “cause” any one specific weather event; rather the two phases of ENSO influence change in global climate patterns that then increase the likelihood of specific weather events. Once again, ENSO is not “to blame” for any one storm system, temperature anomaly or hurricane.

La Niña is a pattern, which favors much more activity in the Atlantic Basin during hurricane season. During La Niña, trade winds weaken over the Atlantic Ocean creating a supportive environment for tropical cyclone formation. Transitioning away from La Niña means these more favorable conditions go away, but without a full transition to El Niño, there are no major limiting factors.

The forecast is based on an extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using 38 years of past data. These seasonal forecasts were originally developed by the late Dr. William Gray, who was lead author on these predictions for over 20 years and continued as a co-author until his death in 2018. You can review the entire prediction, the scientific explanation and the reason such a forecast is made, RIGHT HERE. Seasonal updates are issued on June 2nd, July 7th, and August 4th.

The researchers at Colorado State University and the WBRZ Weather Team remind that “it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for you,” so prepare accordingly. NOAA’s official outlook is expected in Late May. For more on the season ahead and preparedness, visit wbrz.com/weather and click on the hurricane center.