Hot, humid and mostly dry summarizes the rest of your week. The tropics are busy but not threatening and it is time to start looking north for the season’s first cold front.

The Next 24 Hours: Skies will be mostly clear overnight with muggy low temperatures in the upper 70s.  Wednesday will repeat a warm, humid afternoon with little in the way of rain relief. Temperatures will reach the 90s by 11am with feels-like temperatures entering the triple digits. Highs will peak in the mid 90s during the afternoon.

After That: The week will conclude with mostly to partly sunny afternoons and minimal convective activity. Highs will rise into the mid 90s with lows in the mid 70s. On Saturday, enough moisture and instability will be around for isolated, afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop and this general pattern will continue through Tuesday. The forecast gets interesting beyond that, as a cold front will be up in the Midwest. The European model shows the front staying north; the American model suggests it will pass through the area. If the American turns our correct, we could experience highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 60s. It is too early to lean toward one model or the other. Put into historical context with data going back to 1930, the first low temperature below 65 degrees at Metro Airport has occurred around September 6. Over the last 5 years it has happened as early as August 26 and as late as October 11.   

The Tropics: On Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Nana formed in the Caribbean Sea. Moving west toward central America, this system will not impact the local United States. Tropical Storm Omar then formed during the afternoon hours. That system is drifting northeast and out to sea; it also will not pose a threat to the United States. A small area of low pressure has formed midway between the Windward Islands and west Africa. Conditions allow a 20 percent chance of formation as the system meanders in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in about a day and merge with another disturbance southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. There is a 50 percent chance of formation as this complex moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

The Explanation: The Bermuda ridge of high pressure will remain over the southwest Atlantic and eastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. With much less moisture in the atmosphere and sinking motions induced by the ridge, rain coverage will be bleak. The opposite is true for heat. Feels-like temperatures will run well into the low 100s thanks to a longer duration of sunshine and warmth and no shortage of late summer humidity. On Friday, a weakness will open up between a ridge to the west and another to the east. This weakness of relatively lower pressure should allow isolated showers and thunderstorms to return each afternoon into early next week. A strong cold front will be moving south across the United States toward the middle and end of next week. Forecast models are split on whether or not this boundary will break into the Gulf of Mexico. If so, highs and lows could slide 5 degrees or more below average.

--Josh

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