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August weather pattern: hit the showers

3 years 9 months 1 week ago Tuesday, August 11 2020 Aug 11, 2020 August 11, 2020 6:11 PM August 11, 2020 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Dry air has made it difficult for showers and thunderstorms to develop in any more than isolated nature. A gradual increase of moisture in the atmosphere should translate to a little more activity each day to end the week.

The Next 24 Hours: Tonight will be mostly clear with calm winds and low temperatures in the mid 70s. On Wednesday, morning sunshine will allow temperatures to race into the low 90s before topping out around 93 degrees close to 3pm. By that time, a few showers and thunderstorms should be able to develop, to the tune of isolated (30 percent) coverage in our forecast area.    

The Long Term Trend: Thursday and Friday will offer the highest coverage of showers and thunderstorms this week. Typical for the time of year, morning sunshine will drive highs into the low 90s before scattered showers and thunderstorms develop near peak daytime warming in the early afternoons. Overnights will be quieter with lows in the mid 70s. Precip. chances will trail off a bit over the weekend. A weak front may make it into the region by Tuesday for just a touch of steam relief.   

The Tropics: Tropical Depression Eleven has formed about 2,335 east of the Lesser Antilles. The depression will continue west at about 15 mph and likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Josephine on Wednesday. A turn to the west-northwest is expected for the rest of the week.

The Explanation: Into Wednesday, an upper level ridge of high pressure will be replaced with a shortwave trough of low pressure and slightly higher moisture. The result will then be a gradual increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms that develop, each day through the week. The shortwave trough will deepen over the Southeast through Saturday. Cooler temperatures aloft will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Thursday and Friday. Daytime warming will be the primary trigger for convection, followed by outflow boundaries as initial storms decay. Nights will be quieter, but muggy. The trough will slide east on Sunday and the shower count should decline for the weekend into early next week. At this time, the Weather Prediction Center is highlighting a cold front approaching the region on Tuesday, while models suggest it stalls to our north. We will keep an eye on that feature for the days ahead. Given the time of year, any impacts from the front should be minimal, perhaps some slightly lower dew points (humidity).


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