Thursday PM Forecast: setting up an early weekend soaker
Overall, temperatures will be near average through the 7-Day Forecast. There are two periods of rain expected, one this weekend and one early next week.
Tonight & Tomorrow: A seasonably chilly night is ahead as low temperatures bottom out in the low to mid 40s beneath partly cloudy skies. Winds will be out of the north at 5-10mph. On Friday, high temperatures will make a run for the low 60s but be stopped there by thickening clouds. Any sun available early will quickly be shielded by the afternoon. A stray shower is possible, but any organized right will hold off until at night.
Up Next: A broad swath of rain is expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico and slowly pass from west to east throughout Saturday. As a result, the first half of the weekend looks like a washout with about one to two inches of rain falling in most locations. Thanks to the damp conditions, it will stay chilly with lows in the upper 40s and highs just a few degrees warmer in the low 50s. Showers will wrap up during the first half of Sunday with some sun possible before the weekend is over. After a lull on Monday, focus will shift to the next storm system on Tuesday. That one will be worth monitoring closely. The track of the associated surface low will determine how impactful that system will be to the local area and the difference between a severe weather event and mainly just rain.
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Detailed Forecast: Clouds will quickly increase on Friday as a surface low forms at the tail end of the front near the coast of Texas. This low will help to lift moisture into the central Gulf Coast with a shield of rain overspreading the area to begin the weekend. Thanks to the dreary weather, there will be a small range in temperatures on Saturday with lows in the upper 40s and highs in the low 50s. While some rumbles of thunder could occur on Saturday, any organized thunderstorms will stay well offshore. After an inch or two in most neighborhoods, rain will end from west to east on Sunday morning. A decrease in cloud cover is expected late in the weekend as a brief upper level ridge passes over the region allowing a quiet beginning to the new week. Given the lower amplification of the ridge and mainly clear skies, temperatures will be a little closer to average Monday with morning lows in the low 40s and afternoon highs in the low 60s. Another rain event is expected on Tuesday. It is too early to iron out specific details but the track of the associated surface low will be important. Farther north will bring a threat for severe weather. Farther south will mean just another rainy day.
Don't mean to look past the next event but after Saturday's rain, a storm system on Tuesday could turn into a pretty substantial severe weather threat (depending on the track of the associated surface low). #LaWX #MsWX pic.twitter.com/tQ3tJc9rT3— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) January 19, 2023
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