Expect pleasant conditions to hold steady across the Baton Rouge area through Thursday, featuring cooler starts and warm, mainly dry afternoons. By late Friday and into the weekend, attention shifts to the tropics as Tropical Storm Isaias approaches the Central Gulf Coast.

Midweek Calm: lower humidity, afternoon sunshine

Weekend Rain: just a possibility, depends on track of tropical system

Watching the Gulf: Isaias to target area between southeast Louisiana and Florida Panhandle

Today & Thursday: You can expect plenty of sunshine and dry air on Wednesday, with humidity levels on the lower side of things. Daytime highs will climb into the upper 80s, and while inland areas will stay completely dry, a stray shower or two could pop up along the immediate coast and offshore. Under mostly clear skies, low temperatures will fall comfortably into the mid-to-upper 60s overnight. Thursday promises a nearly identical setup, just with a touch more cloud cover passing through.

Up Next: Right now, the Storm Station forecast brings rain chances back into the mix starting Friday and lasting through the weekend as tropical moisture pushes inland. Keep in mind that the weekend forecast remain fluid, as everything hinges on where exactly Tropical Storm Isaias goes. A direct hit or closer track would make for a much wetter and windier couple of days, whereas a further east track would keep most of the impacts to our east. If you've got outdoor events lined up, stay tuned for updates over the next few days as the track becomes clearer. Once the system clears out, long-range guidance points to drier, quieter weather returning early next week, with high temperatures rebounding into the upper 80s and low 90s.

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The Tropics: Satellite imagery shows thunderstorm activity intensifying and consolidating near the storm's center, which has allowed the system to officially strengthen into Tropical Storm Isaias with 40 mph sustained winds. Steering currents from a nearby upper-level atmospheric trough are expected to turn Isaias northeastward and then northward across the Gulf, setting it on a path toward the northern Gulf Coast over the next 2 to 3 days. Unusually warm waters and low wind shear will allow Isaias to rapidly intensify, with it expected to become a major hurricane peaking around 115 mph over the central Gulf before stronger upper-level winds begin to weaken it just prior to landfall. While the official forecast track has nudged slightly eastward toward the Florida Panhandle and Mississippi, there remains significant uncertainty in the computer models, meaning residents across Southeast Louisiana must continue monitoring updates closely.

– Balin

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