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Unsettled Thursday, gloomy conditions linger into Saturday

2 years 4 months 5 days ago Thursday, December 13 2018 Dec 13, 2018 December 13, 2018 5:59 AM December 13, 2018 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

You will not need many layers today, but an umbrella is a good idea. Late morning commuters may expect delays due to rain.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A cold front will return showers and thunderstorms to the area on Thursday. One or two storms could act up, but there are no major signals for widespread severe weather. Brief downpours, gusty wind and perhaps an isolated tornado would be the main threats. Most of the rain and storm action will occur during the first half of the day, with showers tapering near dusk. Highs will level off in the mid 60s. Overnight, only spotty showers will remain with lows in the upper 40s.

Up Next: The associated surface low pressure system will linger over the area on Friday maintaining a stubborn cloud deck and isolated, light showers. Due to this, it will be a chilly day with highs struggling to get out of the low 50s. Clouds could hang on until Saturday morning but mainly clear skies are expected for the second half of the weekend. Temperatures will be within just a few degrees of seasonal averages—that is, highs near 64 and lows near 43.

THE EXPLANATION:

A shortwave trough will be cutting off with an upper low over east Texas Thursday. An influx of upper 50s to lower 60s dew points is expected during the day. There will also be considerable uplift for the development of widespread rain and thunderstorms, but the severe weather risk should be limited inland due to very weak surface destabilization. Morning activity will probably curtail instability across most of the region. At this time, the jet stream and wind shear profiles will be favorable for gusty wind and possibly an isolated tornado. However, sufficient instability to support such activity may not advance far beyond the coast. This threat will quickly trail off by dusk. Appropriately, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the area under a 1/5 “marginal risk” for severe weather. In the heaviest thunderstorms, an inch or so of rain could occur, but the threat for flooding appears low. High-end rain coverage will end Thursday evening. However, since the storm system is indeed cutting off over our region, it is going to take until sometime early Saturday for the upper low to move east. Therefore, clouds and pockets of light rain and drizzle will linger Friday, and possibly into Saturday morning. Dry, seasonable weather will then come for the weekend into early next week.

--Dr. Josh

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