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Thursday PM Forecast: rainy night ahead, another round Saturday

1 week 4 days 11 hours ago Thursday, November 24 2022 Nov 24, 2022 November 24, 2022 4:57 PM November 24, 2022 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

A wet weather pattern has arrived. Periods of rain and gray skies will dominate through Saturday.

Next 24 Hours: Periods of rain and even a few thunderstorms will continue overnight. Rain could be heavy at times and there is a chance for some localized street and poor drainage flooding. Despite the rain, a muggy air mass will keep low temperatures in the low 60s. Rain will begin to taper on Friday morning. A bit of a lull is expected for much of the day but ample clouds will keep high temperatures in the low 70s.    

Up Next: A cold front will push into the region on Saturday with a final punch of showers and thunderstorms. There is an outside shot that one or two storms could produce gusty wind and, again, heavy rain will be possible. All told, this system will deliver a healthy soak to the region with widespread Thursday to Saturday event rain totals of 2-4 inches. Clearing is expected overnight and into Sunday. Once the front does pass, thermometers will barely dip with highs near 70 and lows near 50 on Sunday and Monday. Another rainmaker will arrive late Tuesday. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, all is quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next five days.

The Explanation: A upper level trough of low pressure will dive south out of the Rockies and into the southwest into Thursday evening. This trough is going to get separated from the upper level steering winds and cut off over New Mexico and Texas slowing its eastward movement into the weekend. A warm front moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico will cause a period of steady rain overnight into Friday. Well above average moisture and upper level winds essentially parallel to the warm front could result in some training and a risk for heavy rain around the Metro Area.

To highlight this potential, the Weather Prediction Center has placed much of the area in a Level 2/4 Risk for Excessive Rainfall. While the front is expected to stall across the area on Friday, a lack of energy in the upper levels could mean a temporary lull in precipitation for much of the day while a low cloud deck keeps it gray and gloomy. A trailing cold front will move in Friday night into Saturday with a punch of energy in the upper levels leading to another organized batch of rain and thunderstorms. In terms of any severe weather potential, instability will be limited, though there is some concentrated to the far coastal LA region. A few strong to severe thunderstorms in areas closer to the coast is not out of the question.  Behind that system, surface high pressure builds in, so conditions quickly dry out and slightly cool down with highs returning to the upper 60s and low 70s Sunday and Monday.

--Josh

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