Thursday evening video forecast

The seemingly endless routine of early sun and late thunderstorms will continue. Remember the positive to the repetition—in July and August, really the only alternative is interference from the tropics, so repetitive doesn’t sound that bad!

CHECK IT OUT: a tropical funnel was seen in #BatonRouge on Thursday afternoon. This (harmless) feature was associated with a thunderstorm that moved over the Capital City around 2:30pm. https://t.co/vYEodijIS0
— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) July 28, 2022

Next 24 Hours: The shower machine will shut down tonight as per usual. Low temperatures will stall around 75 degrees. Friday may potentially be a bit more active than previous days. A round of showers and thunderstorms could pop as early as mid-morning followed by a break and re-heating. High temperatures will chug up to 92 degrees and that should be enough to pop scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as well.

Here is a quick reminder about what those rain percentages on the 7-Day Forecast mean for the WBRZ Weather 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area.

10-30% - Isolated: a few locations receive measurable rain

30-60% - Scattered: part to half of the area receives measurable rain

60-100% - Widespread: almost all of the area receives measurable rain

Keep in mind, those chances tell nothing about timing. For instance, 100% DOES NOT mean it will rain all day. We will be sure to provide information in our forecasts as to when you can expect rain when chances are on the board. MORE: https://www.wbrz.com/news/a-chance-to-remember

Up Next: The atmosphere is expected to warm and dry a bit on Saturday and Sunday cutting into the number of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Still, isolated activity is expected to develop. Locations that do not pick up rain or get under nearby clouds will have high temperatures hitting the middle 90s. Overall, there is not much variation expected over the forecast period though. Days with more activity will have highs closer to average in the low 90s. Days with less activity will have highs topping out in the mid 90s and staying there longer. Given the ample humidity in place, any of those drier days could warrant a heat advisory from the National Weather Service due to feels-like temperatures over 108 degrees. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next five days.

The Explanation: Despite the presence of an upper level ridge, persistent deep layer moisture off the Gulf of Mexico will continue to flow into the region. This will tap into instability as temperatures climb through the upper 80s and low 90s to pop scattered showers and thunderstorms from mid morning through late afternoon. Into the weekend, rain coverage will likely trim back a bit. One item that could change this is a weak, upper level trough of low pressure moving west-northwest from the Bahamas toward the Gulf of Mexico. If this subtle impulse can hold together, it would provide cooler temperatures aloft and therefore more instability for a continuation of (at least) scattered showers and thunderstorms—especially Saturday. Actually, the colder air aloft would even lend to some of the storms being capable of gusty winds. Either way, even if the trough makes it here, it would exit by the end of the weekend followed by a strengthening upper level ridge of high pressure, which could result in a downturn in rain coverage and return heat advisory conditions to the region.

--Josh

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