Widespread rain and storms tonight into Thursday
A cold front will bring rain and thunderstorms to the area overnight into Thursday. Some changes you will like are expected for Easter Weekend.
Today and Tonight: Wednesday will be breezy, warm and muggy with a high temperature in the mid 80s. While an isolated shower is possible, the better chance for rain and thunderstorms will come as a slow moving cold front arrives late tonight. While widespread strong storms are not expected, a few could produce downpours and gusty wind. The severe weather threat is greater north and west of Baton Rouge this afternoon and then north and east of Baton Rouge on Thursday. In those areas, damaging wind gusts and a tornado will be possible. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this potential with a “slight risk” of severe weather. Since it is the spring severe weather season, review your plans and keep devices nearby that can provide watches and warnings. Rain will continue through dawn with low temperatures in the upper 60s.
Up Next: Action will kick through the area by Thursday afternoon as temperatures struggle for the mid 70s. A secondary front will knock down temperatures and humidity into Friday with very pleasant weather on tap for Easter Weekend. Saturday and Sunday will feature mostly clear skies, no humidity, highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
The pattern will begin to change on Wednesday as a slow moving trough and associated cold front at the surface approach the area. The trough will take on a negative tilt as it moves across eastern Oklahoma. Areas immediately south and east of the upper trough in northeast Texas, north Louisiana and Arkansas will be positioned near the best dynamics and a strong upper level jet favorable for titled updrafts and therefore severe thunderstorms. Farther to the southeast in southwest Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, the wind shear and will be lower but still sufficient to support stronger thunderstorms. The issue is that instability will wane after dusk leaving a smaller window of opportunity for storms to turn severe—likely between dusk and 2am. However, forcing for showers and thunderstorms, mainly a front, is not expected to arrive until after that. For locations northwest of the WBRZ Weather Forecast Area, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a 2 out of 5 “slight risk” for severe thunderstorms. For Thursday, this same risk extends into the New Orleans and Hammond area to points east as instability recovers with daytime warmth. Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are the two primary threats for those areas. The severe weather ingredients are not expected to fully synchronize in the Baton Rouge area. A squall line with rain and gusty wind is expected to move through the area from west to east primarily on Thursday morning. The threat for an inch or two of rain is there, but a relative dry stretch should mean the area and local rivers can handle such amounts. A secondary front associated with the trough axis will move across the region on Friday therefore holding some cloud cover in the forecast. However, cooler and drier air will advect into the region on Friday bringing very pleasant conditions for Easter Weekend.
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