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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Weak front to bring better rain chances

3 months 2 weeks 3 days ago Monday, June 04 2018 Jun 4, 2018 June 04, 2018 6:18 AM June 04, 2018 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

The first June weekend is in the books and expected warmth and humidity was the main story with just a few showers and thunderstorms around the area. The weak cold front responsible for that isolated activity on Sunday will stall along the Gulf Coast Monday perhaps allowing slightly drier air to sneak as far south as I-10.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Despite stray showers and thunderstorms south of I-10, overall sunny and slightly less humid conditions are anticipated for Monday. High will still reach into the low 90s, with overnight lows down to about 70.

Up Next: As we head into Tuesday, there will be a return of afternoon showers and humidity. This is due to a front that will stall to keep afternoon showers and isolated storms in the region through Thursday. Temperatures should stay constant through this period, staying in the low 90s through the week. We should see a break in the moisture on Friday, but another broken front will approach as we near the weekend. This will bring the potential for spotty, afternoon showers Saturday and into Sunday.

The Tropics: No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico over the next 5 days. Hurricane Season 2018 is just underway. Keep in mind that while the next few weeks may be fairly quiet, activity usually peaks in August and September as locals begin to enjoy college football season.

THE EXPLANATION:

A weak front is dropping south through the region. This can be identified by slightly cooler temperatures and lower dew points in north Louisiana and central Mississippi. The front may make it to the coast before snaking and dissipating across south Louisiana through the remainder of the week. While the front should be a trigger to initiate more showers and thunderstorms, rain chances will be especially enhanced on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday as some upper level energy rides across the boundary. Despite only being a day or two out, forecast models are struggling with the subtle trough features that will bring better rain chances. At this time, the passing troughs are expected to bring at least scattered activity during the middle of the week before a ridge returns and the area assumes a more typical summertime pattern once again.   

--Dr. Josh

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