Trending calm short term, more active long term
While heavier rain occurred in the New Orleans area, only 0.06 inches of rain was measured at Baton Rouge Metropolitan Airport on Monday—little help for the recent dry spell. Rain chances will scale back Tuesday and disappear Wednesday.
Today and Tonight: For your Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will fall back into the isolated category. Most of any action that can develop will be limited to coastal and western areas. High temperatures will make it a little warmer in response to additional sunshine, topping out in the mid 80s. Thanks to persistent easterly winds of 10-15mph, water may pile up on east facing shorelines and therefore the National Weather Service has issued a coastal flood advisory for tides one to two feet above normal. Overnight will be partly cloudy with lows in the low 70s and upper 60s.
Up Next: The remainder of the week is expected to be mostly clear and unseasonably warm. Normal highs and lows this time of year are 85 and 63 respectively. Highs should have no problem climbing into the upper 80s with lows in the mid 60s through Saturday. Both a tropical low and cold front could play a role in the forecast by Sunday. Depending on the development and movement of both, the chance for another round of breezy and rainy conditions exists late weekend into early next week. If a cold front does proceed through the area, it would flush out tropical moisture and possibly provide some cooler, drier air.
The Tropics: The Atlantic Basin has finally settled down a bit and no development is expected over the next two days. However, over the next five days an area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula. The National Hurricane Center then provides a 30 percent chance of tropical formation in the southern Gulf.
A westerly moving tropical wave will pull away from the local area on Tuesday. Enough moisture and forcing may linger to spawn isolated convection but the wettest period is behind us. An upper level ridge will push into the area from the northeast for the remainder of the week leading to mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions. By Sunday, forecast models continue to hint at an area of low pressure developing in the southern Gulf of Mexico before straying northward. It is much too early to project strength or track of a system, if any at all, but this at least begs for more attention as we get closer. Then, early next week, models are showing a deepening trough moving across the nation with an associated surface cold front. How this front and the tropical low interact will dictate weather along the central Gulf Coast. Even if there is a period of unsettled weather, the front could provide a payoff in the form of considerably cooler and drier air by the middle of next week.