Sunny and warm with an air quality alert
An area of high pressure dominates our weather pattern for a majority of the week. This will keep our sunshine and rain-free days in place.
Today and Tonight: Expect more sunshine and low humidity for Monday. High temperatures will stride for the mid 80s. Winds will be light and southeasterly. Overnight, skies will stay clear with low temperatures near 60.
The Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality is forecasting an Ozone Action Day for East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge, Livingston, Ascension, Iberville and Pointe Coupee Parishes with an AIR QUALITY ALERT in effect until midnight. Increased ozone will be unhealthy for sensitive groups. Active children and adults, the elderly and people with respiratory diseases such as asthma should avoid prolonged outdoor exertion. Through Tuesday, an upper-level ridge of high pressure over Louisiana will reduce atmospheric mixing. In addition, warm temperatures and sunny skies will enhance ozone formation, and calm to light southerly winds at the surface will inhibit air dispersion, allowing pollutants to accumulate. These conditions will lead to elevated air quality index (AQI) levels.
Up Next: The area of high pressure responsible for quiet weather will eventually get pushed aside. This will help turn up temperatures and humidity before a cold front boots it out of the way once again. This system will usher in some more cool dry air and another nice weekend seems to be forthcoming. Prior to the change though, some showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday. Right now, heavy rain and severe weather are not concerns, but we’ll keep an eye on it.
THE SCIENCE: High pressure extends from Lake Superior to the central Gulf of Mexico this morning. Other than some Pacific Ocean moisture that is moving across the area in the form of scattered cirrus clouds, there is not much to speak of in the way of weather this morning. Surface high pressure will and an upper level ridge will moves very slowly eastward over the next few days. An upper low currently over southern California will lift slowly northeast to the Colorado-New Mexico border by Wednesday evening. This will gradually bring winds around to a southeast direction, but any increase in moisture will be rather slow. No precipitation expected through Wednesday. High temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s and overnight lows will increase a degree or two each night, signaling a slow climb in dew points and thus humidity. The only real forecast issue during the period will be with the system that impacts the area on Friday. Although there are differences in how the medium range models move the upper low to our north, the end results are pretty much similar with a front moving across the area Friday night. There may be some precipitation in northwestern sections as early as late Thursday night, but the best chances for rain will be Friday and Friday evening. Depending on the actual track of the low pressure, the potential for severe weather cannot be ruled out just yet, but concerns are low at the moment.