After one more cold morning, moderating temperatures will commence. By Friday, highs will get back to the 70s with rain chances soon to follow.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: An area of high pressure will keep quiet weather around through Wednesday, but this will also hold cold temperatures in place. Look for highs in the 50s with much lighter winds out of the northeast. Overnight, some clouds may return with lows just above freezing.

Up Next:  By Thursday afternoon, gradual warming will begin with highs returning to the 60s. Clouds will start to increase as southeasterly winds slowly add moisture to the atmosphere. The week will end mild and in the 70s. An isolated shower could develop as early as Friday. The next frontal system will return showers and thunderstorms to the area by Saturday. This system will need to be monitored for strong storms. Above average temperatures will continue through the weekend.

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 43’ as of Wednesday morning. Though the classification of “major flood stage” sounds scary, impacts to land are minimal thanks to levee protection. The high water is primarily an issue for river traffic and river islands as well as a few spots north and south of Baton Rouge that will turn soggy along the banks. At this time, the river is projected to crest next week at a level similar to what was reached last year around 44’.

THE EXPLANATION:

An area of high pressure will set up north of the local area on Wednesday allowing continued cool and mainly clear conditions. By Thursday, the surface high pressure will begin to push away to the northeast and winds will slowly take on an easterly and then southeasterly component. A weak ridge will also pass over the Gulf Coast with some accompanying moisture. This will allow moderating temperatures and return of some clouds. Deep, southerly flow will continue the moderating trend in temperatures for Friday and even bring enough moisture for some fog to form Friday and Saturday morning.

We are monitoring a storm system with the potential to produce damaging wind and tornadoes from the Mid-South to Gulf Coast this weekend. Stay tuned for details as this one comes together. #LaWX #MsWX | More from @NWSSPC: https://t.co/4trWwRM4Gq pic.twitter.com/zo5OsSNgLs

— WBRZ Weather (@WBRZweather) March 5, 2019

Moving into the weekend, a more active weather pattern will develop. A strong shortwave trough will move out of the Midwest into the Mid-South taking on a negative tilt while doing so. In response, a surface low pressure will deepen with a trailing cold front sweeping east toward the Mississippi River. Guidance has not yet come into agreement on timing of the active weather locally but both the GFS and ECMWF do indicate favorable conditions for severe weather around the middle of the weekend. Instability looks to be sufficient while wind shear will be moderate to possibly even high. The Storm Prediction Center has hashed out the local area with a 15 percent chance of finding severe weather within 25 miles of a point in the 4-8 day outlook. This area will be refined as we get closer in time and receive the standard convective outlook products. What happens next is also still unclear. Rain chances will depend on whether or not the front clears the area allowing some drying or stalls in the northern Gulf keeping showers around. Either way, an upper level disturbance will move across the region on Monday, drawing the boundary north and increasing the possibility for showers again. Above average temperatures will carry through the 7-Day Forecast from there.      

--Josh

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