After today, the Baton Rouge area will return to a pattern more typical of June. Expect marine breezes to bring “pop-up” afternoon showers back to the region.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday will run very similar to Wednesday. With slowly increasing humidity, high temperatures should have no problem achieving low 90s. Skies will be partly sunny. Winds will be light and easterly. Overnight, skies are expected to be mostly clear with lows in the low 70s.

Up Next: By Friday, humidity will become oppressive again, but the afternoon should still bring some sunshine. With southeast winds of 5-10mph return flow and marine breezes could develop an isolated shower or thunderstorm—especially in areas south of I-10. A higher likelihood of pop-up afternoon showers and thunderstorms will come in to play Saturday to Monday. While weekend activities won’t be spoiled, have that summer plan in place where you head inside for a few minutes if lightning is nearby.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A surface high pressure will move from the Mid-Mississippi River Valley to the Eastern United States between by Friday, eventually shifting surface winds to the southeast as the week ends. This will result in return flow and returning humidity. An upper level ridge will build over much of the Eastern United States over the weekend which would typically cap the atmosphere. This may well be the case again however; the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the return flow will be enough to pop a few low topped showers and thunderstorms—especially on Sunday and Monday. Low level humidity and omega charts show enough moisture and lift up to about 700mb to support the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms. With additional forcing from marine breezes and a little eddy of positive vorticity advection beneath the ridge, some rain seems plausible. However, at this time, no washouts are expected, rather your typical summertime isolated action.      

--Josh

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