THE FORECAST:

Tonight and Tomorrow: A mostly clear and muggy night in store, as temperatures will stay in the 80s through much of the evening. Eventually we will reach an overnight low of 76° with light winds out of the southwest. Skies will be partly cloudy to start your Monday morning, but clouds will be increasing through the day as showers move west through the afternoon and into the evening. Temperatures will be slightly cooler as afternoon highs will only reach around 91°. Heat index values will again break into the triple digits, hovering around 102° during the afternoon hours.

Up Next:  Scattered showers and storms through the beginning part of the workweek, moving east to west across the Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Significant moisture sticking around through the week, as afternoon pop up showers stay scattered through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

THE EXPLANATION:

 The high pressure center that has been hanging out just offshore has met its demise. The low pressure along the Florida Panhandle has effectively broken it up, and is continuing to move west along the Gulf Coast. This will provide scattered showers and storms that will peak through the day on Tuesday. The system will make it to Texas on Wednesday, allowing for conditions to begin to dry out just in time for fireworks. Afternoon pop up showers will return to wrap up the week, but will involve additional moisture and atmospheric forcings due to the proximity of the low keeping the atmosphere rather unstable. This will keep showers and storms relatively widespread, amounting to rainfall amounts through the week to range from 2 to 4 inches.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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