Another one to two days of lower humidity is expected before more typical warm season weather returns. This includes rain chances.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thanks to a reinforcing, weak cold front, another day of warm temperatures but lower humidity is anticipated. Expect a good amount of sunshine as high temperatures head for the upper 80s. Overnight will be mostly clear with low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.   

Up Next: Onshore flow will allow some humidity to build on Friday afternoon with thermometers making a run for 90 degrees once again. As of this forecast, the area is expected to stay dry.

By the weekend, enough moisture should be available for daytime warming to force out afternoon showers and thunderstorms with a slightly better chance on Saturday. However, action will not be widespread and no washouts are anticipated.

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next 5 days.

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 43.7’ as of Wednesday morning. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. At 159 days, this year marks the longest period above flood stage at Baton Rouge. The current forecast is for the second crest of 44.0’ to occur Monday. The Morganza Spillway opening has been delayed indefinitely and may not be necessary thanks to water levels running lower than originally forecast. On the Mississippi River, the high water will remain an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue for unprotected low-lying areas. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees up to 47 feet. Some soggy areas and seepage may be noted due to the long duration of high water placing pressure on the levees. As some of the Mississippi River diverts into the Atchafalaya River, gauges at Krotz Springs and Morgan City will stay high as well. This creates backwater flooding in parts of Assumption Parish in areas such as Bayou Chene, Stephensville and around Lake Palourde.

THE EXPLANATION:

A reinforcing front moved through the area overnight to provide another 36 to 48 hours of drier air and cooler than average temperatures. By the weekend, the anomalously strong upper level trough will lift out of the Eastern U.S. and a more zonal (west to east) flow aloft will restore more typical June weather.  A ridge building across the western Atlantic will send south winds and Gulf moisture into the area by Friday night. The increased dew points will allow showers and thunderstorms to enter the forecast. A more normal diurnal rain cycle should emerge through the weekend into next week. Some weak upper level impulses are shown on forecast models for Saturday and Monday, so we’re currently favoring those two days for the higher coverage in measurable rain.    

--Josh

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