A cold front will bring a better chance of rain on Friday. Heads up—try to get outside this weekend, as it could be one of the last without high heat and humidity until next fall.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Clear skies and lower humidity will last through Thursday. Look for highs in the low 80s followed by lows in the low 60s.

Up Next: By Friday afternoon, warmth and humidity will surge northward from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of another cold front. This boundary will be more potent than the last and will bring more coverage in rain. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will roll across the area on Friday afternoon and evening. One or two storms could bring gusty wind and downpours, mainly Friday afternoon. Behind the front, we will get one of the last periods of comfort before summer heat and humidity arrive. Temperatures will be reduced to 10 degrees below average for a pair of mostly sunny afternoons in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday morning lows will be in the low 50s with a few isolated pockets in the upper 40s north and east of the city.

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 40.5’ as of Wednesday morning. The river is expected to fall slowly over the coming weeks. The high water is primarily an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue for a few spots north and south of Baton Rouge that are not protected by levees. Unprotected low-lying areas will be flooded and agricultural operations will be impacted on the west side of the river. The grounds of the older part of Louisiana State University's campus become soggy. This includes the area around the Veterinary Medicine building, the Veterinary Medicine Annex, the stadium and ball fields. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees at this level.

THE EXPLANATION:

A surface high pressure system overhead will move toward the Florida Peninsula by Friday. As this occurs, a period of return flow will result in rising dew points. However, the short duration of southerly winds will keep deep moisture abated. Upper level winds will not be very favorable for tornadoes. That said, available ingredients are limited for a cold front set to approach Friday afternoon. There are a few things working for the severe weather potential though.

Daytime warming will lead to enough instability to combine with frontal forcing for a line of rain and thunderstorms to develop and the Storm Prediction Center will carry a 2/5 risk for strong storms with gusty wind and downpours, mainly northwest of Baton Rouge. A needed one to two inch drench could occur for some before precipitation shuts down by daybreak Saturday. Skies will clear from north to south but some pockets of atmospheric moisture could leave patchy clouds through the weekend, especially near the coast. Behind the front, rather pleasant, spring conditions are anticipated for the weekend. A deep, upper level trough will follow the front into the Eastern United States delivering unseasonably cool and dry air. This feature will allow for chilly conditions on Sunday morning with lows dipping into the upper 40s and low 50s. Gradually warming temperatures are pegged for early next week, with no rain in the forecast through Wednesday. 

 --Josh

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