Out of the chill
Warming temperatures and increasing clouds are expected through Thanksgiving. Organized rain should be holding off until at least Black Friday.
Today and Tonight: Tuesday will be a bit warmer with highs reaching the mid 60s. It does appear as though some mid and high level clouds will sweep across the region, however no rain is expected. Overnight, we are projecting much warmer lows—in the upper 40s—with little more than a few clouds.
Looking Ahead: For Wednesday, travel weather appears to be in good shape for the eastern two-thirds of the nation. While a light rain shower is possible from Iowa southward to Texas, no major delays should occur due to weather. Locally, the pattern appears quiet through Thanksgiving with Wednesday and Thursday highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 50s. The next front could bring scattered showers into the region Friday through Sunday, though that portion of the forecast is not fully clear at this time.
Forecast Discussion: Surface high pressure is migrating to the northeast. With this occurring, the local area will find winds turning a little more southeasterly and thus slow moderation of temperatures will begin. The next trough will dig into the Western U.S. by Wednesday and this one is setting up a difficult forecast. One issue may stem from the fact that weather balloon soundings have not yet gotten a full sample of this system with most of it over ocean water. Whatever the cause, forecast models are not agreeing on the progression of the surface features associated with this system. At this time, it does appear as through a cold front will organize in the Midwest by Wednesday with rain staying close to the front. By Thanksgiving, as the front sags southeastward, clouds will increase across the region, though there is no indication of any organized rain. By Friday, earliest solutions with the next front spread a few showers into Louisiana—but nothing widespread. Major questions still lie in the weekend forecast. It is possible that the front moves very slowly through the region providing clouds and spotty showers both days, with no cool down until next week. A little quicker outcome could mean showers just Saturday followed by clearing and cooling on Sunday or Monday. They key issue lies with the cutoff low solution being indicated by the models. Should this occur, new steering mechanisms will take over or the front will dissipate entirely. We can expect more clarity with this aspect of the forecast with Tuesday Afternoon and Wednesday Morning model runs.
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