More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. Rather than just an afternoon thunderstorm, numerous rounds of rain could lead to nuisance flooding. It is also possible that some locations receive upwards of 2 inches, which has led the Weather Prediction Center to issue a “slight risk” of excessive rainfall. We will pass along any alerts, should they be issued.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Tuesday will be rather active in terms of showers and thunderstorms. A general 1-2 inches of rain is possible with locally higher amounts. In addition to that, storms will be capable of frequent lightning and gusty wind. Action will not take long after dawn to get going and the increased rain coverage and cloudiness will prevent thermometers from warming beyond the 80s. Thanks to an approaching cold front, scattered showers and thunderstorms will taper from northwest to southeast overnight with lows slipping into the low 70s.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible today -- not waiting for afternoon heat to fire up either. Timing is dawn to dusk... #LaWX #MsWX pic.twitter.com/flIyBcXMNU

— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) July 31, 2018

Up Next:  Weak high pressure that is located in the Gulf will aid in bringing ample moisture ashore during the week, as a cold front dissipates over southeast Louisiana. The remnant moisture and lift associated with the front will linger for a few days keeping afternoon rain chances in the scattered category. The position of the front will be crucial to the precipitation forecast on Wednesday and Thursday. At this time, it looks like the front will stall southeast of Baton Rouge, allowing lower rain chances north and west of New Orleans. In general, highs will be a few degrees below average with lows staying close to average.

The Tropics: There are currently no active storms in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. No development is expected over the next 5 days.    

THE EXPLANATION:

A shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will move through the Middle Mississippi River Valley Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. This will enhance precipitation coverage and much of the area could see 1-2 Inches of rain. Most areas have been relatively dry recently and should be able to withstand that much rain. The Weather Prediction Center does show a slight risk of excessive rainfall, mainly north of I-10/12, so we will continue to monitor for the potential of any training situations. In addition to that, enough energy is present in the jet stream that some gusty winds could mix down to the surface as well for some marginally severe thunderstorms. Precipitation should hold highs for much of the area in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. While the main impulse lifts out of the area into New England on Wednesday, the trough will remain over the Mississippi River Valley through the end of the week. Also, a weak cold front will stall in the region. Current guidance shows the front hanging up south and east of Baton Rouge, which would limit rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday. However, a difference of just 25-50 miles back to the northwest would result in a much wetter forecast for the city. As the front and upper level trough continue to dissipate, rain coverage will trend lower and lower each day through the end of the week into the weekend. A ridge will build into the Southeast U.S. by early next week returning seasonably hot temperatures and allowing only isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  

--Dr. Josh

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