The week ahead will feature mainly dry conditions and a trend back toward slightly warmer than average temperatures. Changes may arrive just in time for the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Monday will feature lots of sunshine, but slightly warmer temperatures. Highs will make it into the upper 80s with a touch more moisture in the air. Overnight will. Be clear and not as cool, with lows in the mid 60s.

Up Next: An area of high pressure will dominate the local weather pattern, but as that shifts toward the northeast, it will invite warm and humid air back into Louisiana. This will increase our chance for showers on Wednesday as another front slowly approaches the area. We're not expecting a lot of rain, but it will eventually bring another batch of cool and dry air—similar to that we enjoyed last weekend. Before that, a few places may pop into the 90s by midweek. Once the dry air comes through though, high temperatures will drop back into the low 80s for the weekend.

The Tropics: We're still watching Matthew. It is a strong storm but it has not shifted toward the north and we do not anticipate and influence from this storm over Louisiana. Friends and relatives along the East Coast of the United States though will have to pay very close attention for potential impact from a major hurricane.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An upper level trough draped across the eastern half of the country extends from just east of the Great Lakes southwestward to the Gulf Coast. Along with the cooler and drier air mass in place, showers and thunderstorm activity will remain at bay. 500mb heights will be rising on Monday though, as the trough is shifts east. This will allow for continued temperature modification and highs will be rising back up into the upper 80s by midweek, which is above normal for this time of the year. Dewpoints will begin to rise from southwest to northeast Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface ridge to the north shifts east and southeasterly flow develops locally. A broad long wave trough will be encompassing much of the western half of the country. Even though it will not be infringing much on the local area, slight pressure height falls and increasing surface moisture could be enough to initiate a few showers and thunderstorms. Thus, a few showers and thunderstorms may pop on Wednesday in response to an impulse in the upper flow, while temperatures will remain warm until the associated cold front comes through late in the week. Forecast models are showing a dry front swinging through Late Friday. Once again, drier mid-level should prohibit this front from creating much (if any) precipitation. Another nice, comfortable drop in temperatures is expected for the weekend.

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