Remarkable that just two days after concluding our warmest December on record in the Baton Rouge area, we registered our first freeze of the season. This was the second latest first freeze of the season since 1935.

A FREEZE WARNING is in place from 10pm Monday – 10am Tuesday for all parishes along and south of I-10/12. Here, temperatures could reach 32 degrees or lower for a few hours. Be sure to check on people and pets without access to heat and care for sensitive vegetation. A HARD FREEZE WARNING is posted for all southwest Mississippi counties and Louisiana parishes on the border. For these areas, in addition to people, pets and plants, insulate any outdoor pipes and/or allow a slow drip in faucets.

Next 24 Hours: Another very cold night is expected. With clear and calm conditions, temperatures will dip into the upper 20s and low 30s. Overall, lows should work out to be similar to what occurred on Monday morning. After the freezing start, sunshine will push high temperatures into the upper 50s on Tuesday afternoon. The slight warmup will likely be assisted by a wind shift to the east.       

Up Next: Moderating temperatures will continue on Wednesday with morning readings well above freezing and afternoon highs challenging 70 degrees. Clouds will increase through the day as a frontal system approaches from the northwest. This front and associated low pressure could trigger isolated showers from late Wednesday through early Thursday, but no significant precipitation is expected. Beyond the front, near freezing temperatures are possible on a clear and chilly end to the workweek, Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the weekend forecast though confidence on timing and if a temperature change will follow, is low at this time.  CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Explanation: An upper level trough of low pressure and its associated cold pool will continue to progress east of the area through Tuesday. At the surface, a high pressure system will move from the central Gulf Coast states to the Mid-Atlantic. With the high directly overhead tonight, clear skies and lighter surface layer winds will result in better radiational cooling conditions than last night but this may be somewhat tampered by the shallow, transient nature of the cold pool. As a result, low temperatures will be similar to Monday morning with many locations away from the coast reaching freezing and areas north of I-12 possibly reaching hard freeze conditions with ambient temperatures of 25 degrees or lower for a few hours. With the high traversing the country on Tuesday, surface winds will take on an easterly direction and with plenty of sunshine highs will rebound into the upper 50s. Near average temperatures in the 40s will occur on Tuesday night. A broad, upper level trough of low pressure will move well north of the area on Wednesday and Thursday sending a weak frontal system into the region. The atmosphere will be rather dry still from our recent frontal passage so there will not be much moisture available for this system. However, the forcing or lift created by the front may be just enough to generate a few passing showers late Wednesday into Thursday followed by another pop of cool air to end the week. We will keep an eye on lows Friday morning for perhaps a third freezing night but as of now, the forecast keeps numbers just above 32 degrees. Saturday and Sunday, an upper level trough of low pressure in the western U.S. will interact with another in the Northeast. This somewhat complex and difficult to forecast interaction will place the area in a region of increased moisture and lift and therefore a pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms. A front may push into the area on Monday to lower temperatures but that will be highly dependent on how the upper level troughs resolve across the country—so for now, confidence is low as to what happens Sunday and beyond.   

--Josh

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