If it has been sounding like a repeat forecast each day for the last week, that is because there has not been much change in the weather pattern and there likely will not be for the next several days. A passing cold front over the weekend brought in a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air over the southeast.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Monday forecast calls for cooler conditions under mostly sunny skies as temperatures remain near 70 degrees which seasonal for the month of November. Expect clear and chilly conditions to prevail during the overnight hours with lows in the low 40s.

Up Next: A large area of high pressure that will build in over the region will be responsible for sunny and comfortable days and cooler nights for the next week or so. The best chance for rain will be Wednesday into Thursday, but forecast area measurable rain coverage looks to remain less than 30 percent. We will experience a slight warming trend through the middle of the week when high temperatures will max out in the middle 70s with lows in the 50s.

The Tropics: The Atlantic Basin is quiet; no tropical development is expected over the next 5 days. The official hurricane season ends on Thursday.  

THE EXPLANATION:

An upper level trough will continue to envelop the Eastern United States including the central Gulf Coast through Tuesday. A dry air mass will warm rather efficiently as has been the case of late, so expect upper 60s for highs on Monday with low to mid 70s expected on Tuesday as the airmass modifies. A mid level ridge will move over the central Gulf Coast Monday night, but will flatten out on Tuesday as a potent shortwave trough moves quickly east out of the 4 corners region into the Southern Plains. The trough will then slow eastward progress is it slides toward the Mid-Mississippi River Valley by Wednesday morning. Low level moisture return is expected to bring an increase in clouds by late Tuesday night. If clouds are slow enough to arrive then some fog development is possible on Wednesday morning. Then, there will be a slight chance of showers along and north of I-10 with higher chances along the coast and into the Gulf. This increased rain chance will be due to a combination of the passing shortwave trough and possibly a secondary weaker fast moving upper disturbance. Any rain amounts are expected to be light. A rather amplified upper level pattern is expected to develop during the period with a deep trough over the west coast and a ridge trying to build over the central Gulf Coast. Surface high pressure is also expected to build over the region after a cold frontal passage by Thursday night. Shower chances will continue on Thursday ahead of the front then no rain is in the forecast Thursday night through Sunday. Temperatures are expected to remain fairly close to the seasonal normals.

--Josh

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