Change has come to the Baton Rouge area. Increasing clouds overnight bring gloomy looking weather to the Red Stick today and tomorrow.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Today will be cloudy with showers. Beneath the gray deck, highs will stop in the mid 70s. Overnight brings the highest coverage in showers for this wet stretch. A few claps of thunder are possible too—especially in coastal areas. Lows will get into the mid 60s as clouds remain.

Up Next: For Election Day, off-and-on showers and thunderstorms will continue. Grab the umbrella in the morning for work and school and have it handy in case one of those showers is over your voting location. Precipitation remains in the forecast until at least early Wednesday Morning.  Skies may begin to clear late in the day with some sunshine. The back half of the week will be pretty nice, followed by a mainly clear, and even cool, weekend. Temperatures will reach the lower 50s. The 40s may even come into play, but at this point we'll keep the coolest night on the board at 51 degrees. Some more dry air will accompany those cooler temperatures.

The Tropics: The tropics are quiet and no development is expected this week.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  An upper level trough over West Texas should continue to progress slowly eastward over the next several days. Southerly surface wind flow should strengthen and deepen bringing moisture into the region. Precipitable water will steadily increase over the next 24 hours approaching the 1.75 inch range by Monday Night and Tuesday. A weak disturbance in the southwest flow should trigger scattered to numerous showers over the region, with isolated thunderstorms possible especially Tuesday and in coastal areas. The GFS model is more aggressive than the ECMWF with regard to rainfall totals. If stronger low level convergence materializes per GFS then rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, and isolated greater, are quite possible over the next 48 hours. Conservatively, an inch is likely for most with locations north and west of Baton Rouge receiving the least. Rain should begin to taper Wednesday as the upper trough shifts eastward. A drier air mass will then move into the region during the latter portion of the week. High pressure building into the Ohio Valley and Southeast U.S. should provide reinforcing cooler and drier air mass to the region.

--Josh