Going for 20 and 21
If the Baton Rouge area can make it to 80s degrees today, that would continue to stretch a record count for the winter months. Previously, the most days over 80 degrees recorded in a winter came from December 1956 to February 1957 with 17. Up to date, this winter has reached 80 degrees 19 times. Two weeks ago, our team highlighted the possibility fo this record falling and explained the cause.
Today and Tonight: Sunny skies are expected into the afternoon hours with high temperatures eclipsing 80 degrees. Winds will be light and shifting east, southeast. Overnight, clear skies early will give way to some fog late with lows in the upper 50s.
Up Next: On Friday, partly sunny skies and warm temperatures are expected to continue before a cold front arrives late. At this point, it appears as though the front could squeeze out a stray shower Friday Night, but coverage should be very low with best chance north and west of Baton Rouge. Beyond the front weekend high temperatures will revert to more seasonable readings in the upper 60s. While Lundi Gras and Mardi Gras are given a warm and dry forecast for now, some weak disturbances moving overhead may introduce a shower mention as we get closer.
THE SCIENCE: A slight upper level ridge will push over the region today allowing temperatures to spike in the low 80s under mostly sunny skies. Winds turning southerly overnight will result in some fog formation. A largely zonal, fast moving jet stream is expected leading into the weekend while another surface front approaches from the northwest. The front should kick through pretty quickly as a result, but forecast models do not present much mid-level moisture to support shower development. However, given the expected lift along the front and the unseasonably warmth, model QPF is coming in with .01” and thus will mention the possibility of a shower on Friday night. By the weekend, a push of more seasonable air is expected with brilliant sunshine and high sin the upper 60s for both days. A few disturbances in the upper levels may announce their presence with spotty showers entering the forecast, but the probability is so low this far out in time that a rain chance is not warranted. Thermometers will bounce back well above average once again Monday through Wednesday.