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Fewer showers, Tropical Storm Colin approaching Florida

11 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago June 06, 2016 Jun 6, 2016 Monday, June 06 2016 June 06, 2016 6:04 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

The Baton Rouge area is moving back to a more seasonable pattern—with heat, humidity and only ISOLATED afternoon thundershowers.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: For the beginning of a new week comes a new pattern. More early sunshine will allow high temperatures to make a run at 90 degrees. With a weakening front through the area, north winds will blow at 5-10mph, perhaps briefly dropping humidity levels. A shower or storm can’t be ruled out during the afternoon hours but again, action will not be as widespread or persistent as over the weekend. Tonight will be mostly clear with a low temperature in the upper 60s.

Up Next: Tuesday and Wednesday will offer abundant sunshine with high temperatures near 90 degrees. Morning lows will be right around 70 degrees with light and northerly breezes. Thursday and Friday will start and end just a bit warmer as humidity moves up a bit. Afternoons will be partly sunny with highs in the low 90s.   

The Tropics: As of 7am Monday Morning, Tropical Storm Colin was located over 300 miles to the west-southwest of Tampa, Florida. The system has maximum sustained winds of 40mph and a minimum central pressure of 1004mb. Moving to the northeast at 15mph, Colin is expected to make landfall in Florida Late Monday or Early Tuesday. Tropical Storm warnings have been posted from Indian Pass to Englewood. Up to 6 inches of rain may fall across portions of Central Florida with a 1-3 foot storm surge at landfall. The East Coast of Florida and Coastal Georgia will want to be prepared for heavy rain Earl Tuesday as Colin races northeastward into the Atlantic Ocean.   

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A northern stream upper trough is beginning to suppress the cutoff low over Texas that brought days of unsettled weather and at the same time it is driving a weak cold front toward the Gulf of Mexico. Effects from this are two-fold. The cold front is ushering in a slightly direr air mass aloft (and at the surface) and therefore the convective action during the afternoon hours will diminish after today. In fact, this afternoon, we can only look for an isolated shower or thunderstorm as the front kicks through. The second major impact from this front is that it will keep Tropical Storm Colin away to the southeast. Unfortunately, Florida may see some heavy rain from this system, but Louisiana and Mississippi will have no impact. Light northerly wind behind the front will hold dew points and overnight lows in the upper 60s early in the week, with southerly winds coming back by late week, increasing humidity. Overall, afternoons should be decent with partial sunshine and highs right near normal—in the low 90s. 

--Josh

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