Extended warmth, tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea
An upper level ridge will stay parked over the Eastern U.S. through the middle of next week. Warmth will continue to envelope the region with surface temperatures running 5 to 15 degrees above average.
Today and Tonight: Mostly sunny skies and minimal shower activity will again allow thermometers to reach the low 90s. Ample humidity will lead to peak feels-like temperatures near 100 degrees. That same humidity is responsible for the continued muggy, uncomfortable nighttime lows in the low 70s.
Up Next: Low rain chances and warm temperatures will continue to end the week. Highs will push 90 degrees, which is about 5 degrees above where we should be in the beginning of October. Low temperatures will also stay in the low 70s, which is about 10 degrees above normal. Dew points are forecast to stay elevated in the mid 70s allowing it to feel like temperatures are in the mid to upper 90s. By Saturday, the ridge will begin to weaken. This will cause temperatures top out in the mid to upper 80s, with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. There are no signs of significant cool air in the Southeast and the Climate Prediction Center maintains high probability for above average temperatures through mid-October.
The Tropics: Hurricane Leslie is positioned well east of Bermuda, but close enough to create large swells and high surf. With 75mph winds, the storm is stationary but a turn to the north is forecast to occur late Wednesday into Thursday, followed by a motion toward the north-northeast on Friday. Leslie will weaken over the weekend, turning due east toward Europe.
A broad area of low pressure has developed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea a couple hundred miles north of Panama. Shower and thunderstorm activity is limited, and unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development over the next couple of days as the low drifts generally northward. However, by the weekend, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development when the system will be moving northwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and development chances have been put at 30 percent. There is no immediate cause for alarm in the local area, but the Weather Prediction Center is highlighting an area of low pressure in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, so stay tuned.
Football Forecasts: Friday night high school games will be warm and muggy, but without rain. LSU will travel to Gainesville and Ben Hill Griffin Stadium only to find more heat. “The Swamp” will be humid with highs near 90 degrees and minimal rain chances.
An upper level ridge will remain centered over the forecast area through Thursday. Subsidence will lead to drier conditions, more sunshine and warmer temperatures. Light, east-southeast winds broadly circulating around a surface high pressure system anchored over the Carolinas will lead to continued onshore flow and well above average dew point temperatures in the low 70s. This will keep nights sticky and afternoons oppressively warm and humid. By the weekend, the upper level ridge will slide eastward and the atmosphere will uncap a bit. More convective coverage is anticipated for Saturday as this occurs and slightly deeper moisture sets up in the atmosphere. By early next week, the large scale, upper level pattern will amplify further with a deep trough in the west and a large ridge in the east. Eventually, it would seem reasonable that a lobe of cooler air aloft could break away from this trough and guide a cold front through our area, but there are no such signals in the next 7-10 days. Either way, we are indeed overdue.
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