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Cooling trend

1 year 5 months 2 weeks ago Wednesday, February 03 2016 Feb 3, 2016 February 03, 2016 6:09 AM February 03, 2016 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

With a cold front to the east, much cooler air will encompass the region through this week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Clouds will break with sunshine returning for your Wednesday Afternoon. Northerly breezes of 5-10mph are bringing much cooler air to the region and thus we only expect about a 10 degree warm up into the low 60s. The nighttime hours will bring clear skies and even cooler temperatures with lows in the mid to upper 30s.

Up Next: Thursday and Friday will be sunny with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 30s. Into the weekend, while Saturday may be just a touch warmer, not much change is expected from Friday. A weak disturbance crossing the region means, for now, we cannot rule out a passing shower Saturday and Sunday. However, the likely outcome will be no more than a few passing clouds. Highs and lows will be in the upper 50s and mid 30s. Stay tuned as we monitor the trends!  

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: Quiet weather is expected through the week. Because the morning temperatures started off above average, Wednesday Afternoon may seem mild, but cold air advection will limit afternoon warming to only about 10-15 degrees. The cold air will continue to spill in overnight with lows responding by bottoming out in the upper 30s—below average. High pressure setting up in the Mid-South will keep clear skies and light northerly winds in place through the week. Therefore, Thursday and Friday should be very similar with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 30s. A one to two degree warming of highs and lows may be observed each day. There are some lingering questions as to how the weekend and early portion of next week will unfold. Both models identify a shortwave and associated cold front moving across the Central Gulf Coast on Saturday Afternoon into Sunday. While the ECMWF has been dry in recent runs, the more aggressive GFS model has now backed precipitation as well. Therefore, the likely outcome due to a dry air mass is that only a few passing clouds will accompany this cold front. Then, into next week, a deep trough is expected to bring VERY cold air to the Eastern United States. The southward extent of that cold pool is still unknown, so at this time, we’ll continue with a forecast of just slightly below average temperatures.

--Josh

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