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Cooler, drier and quieter (for now)

4 months 3 weeks 2 days ago Thursday, April 27 2017 Apr 27, 2017 April 27, 2017 5:49 AM April 27, 2017 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Behind last night’s cold front, a shift to northwest winds will temporarily allow slightly cooler and drier air to hold across the WBRZ Weather forecast area. Much will change over the next 24 hours though a greater threat for severe weather is being monitored.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Today will be mostly sunny and warm with a high near 85. A warm front will quickly lift through the area allowing southerly winds to return. Therefore, humidity will be back by tonight with low temperatures likely stopping near 70!  

Up Next: Friday will be partly sunny, even warmer and more humid with high temperatures pushing 90. If you have outdoor plans this weekend, Saturday is a much better bet. The first half of the weekend will be warm and humid. A stray shower or thunderstorms can’t be ruled out, but much of the day will be partly sunny and dry. Into Sunday, we’ll be tracking a storm system that currently shows potential for severe weather and heavy rain. While it is still early for details, all severe weather threats appear possible and there will likely be an extended period of rain and storms—greatly hindering any outdoor events such as Jazz Fest.     

 

THE SCIENCE: A warm front will lift through the region today and winds will quickly shift back to the south. Therefore, no considerable change in temperatures is expected from yesterday despite a frontal passage. In fact, warmth and humidity will increase for the end of the week with some locations approaching 90 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Some fog or stratus development is possible due to the increasing low level moisture fields on Friday and Saturday mornings. Daytime heat may induce an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Another threat for severe weather will come this weekend. On Sunday, a deep trough will move across the Midwest and Central Gulf Coast with an accompanying cold front at the surface. Positive vorticity advection ahead of the trough and the front will greatly enhance omega as the system pushes through. Forecast model parameters have lifted index values maximized between -6 and -8 on Sunday Morning. CAPE values will be around 2,000 with storm relative helicity on the order of 300 m/s. In addition, the atmosphere is expected to be very rich with moisture as precipitable water tops out around 1.9 inches which is near the record for April 30. At this time, damaging wind and heavy rain would seem to be the primary threats but no mode of severe weather can be ruled out. To speak to the possibility of tornadoes, while that is certainly feasible, at this time instability and helicity maximize at different times which would put that threat a little lower. Of course, much can change in the next four days. Again, all of this is preliminary, but the SPC does hash out a portion of Central Louisiana and South Mississippi for the possibility of severe weather. We will need to monitor these trends as the weekend nears. A good pop of cooler and drier air is expected behind this front with highs back into the 70s for Monday.  

--Josh

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