High pressure will maintain pleasant weather through Tuesday. Repeating the weekend pattern, high temperatures will be in the low 80s with low humidity.  

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A lot of sunshine will welcome to first day of the new week. Thermometers will climb into the 70s by mid-morning and reach into the low 80s by mid-afternoon. Light, easterly winds will maintain a dry air mass. Overnight, conditions will stay quiet with mainly clear skies and lows in the upper 50s.

Up Next: A frontal system will approach the area late Tuesday, helping to increase cloud cover during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be slightly above average. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front will move in Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time, the potential for severe weather is relatively low, but one or two strong storms is not out of the question. Conditions will improve by Thursday, as sunny skies return and temperatures steadily increase through the remainder of the week. Highs could break into the 90s for the first time this season by Saturday or Sunday. 

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 42.5’ as of Monday morning. The river is expected to fall very slowly through the next two weeks. The high water is primarily an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue for a few spots north and south of Baton Rouge that are not protected by levees. Unprotected low-lying areas will be flooded and agricultural operations will be impacted on the west side of the river. The grounds of the older part of Louisiana State University's campus become soggy. This includes the area around the Veterinary Medicine building, the Veterinary Medicine Annex, the stadium and ball fields. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees at this level. The level is also high in New Orleans and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has opened the Bonnet Carre Spillway.

THE EXPLANATION:

A surface high pressure system will maintain mainly clear skies and low dew point temperatures, i.e. comfortable conditions through Monday. As the surface high moves toward the Carolinas on Tuesday, winds will take on a southeasterly direction and inject more moisture into the low levels of the atmosphere. This will be felt in the form of a little more stickiness outside and some clouds will be able to develop.

Meanwhile, a surface low pressure system will take shape in the Midwest. This low will track northeastward into the Great Lakes Region. The low will drag a cold front through the region on Wednesday to produce showers and thunderstorms. Taking a much farther trek to the north than previous storm systems, the threat for severe weather, particularly tornadoes, will be much lower. While wind shear will be low, enough instability is expected to be available for a line of activity to produce one or two strong thunderstorms. Once the “cold” front clears the local area to the east, drier conditions will return for the remainder of the week, but thermometers will stay close to average. A broad upper level ridge will build over the south, central U.S. by the weekend leading to compressional warming and some of the highest temperatures so far this season. High temperatures will tempt 90 next Saturday and Sunday, with minimal rain chances.

--Josh

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