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Capital City to coast warm and humid for Memorial Day Weekend

10 months 23 hours 48 minutes ago May 27, 2016 May 27, 2016 Friday, May 27 2016 May 27, 2016 5:55 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

As Memorial Day Weekend commences, another day of warmth and humidity is on tap.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Friday’s high temperatures will top out in the upper 80s. A few more clouds than the past couple of days should keep most out of the 90s. Again, no more than an isolated shower or thunderstorm is expected. Overnight will be partly cloudy and muggy with lows in the low 70s.

Up Next: Saturday to Monday, highs will flirt with 90 degrees while lows struggle to leave the 70s. If there are any pop-up showers and thunderstorms, they will be isolated and limited to the afternoon hours. Saturday seems to provide the best (but still low) chance at some activity. The Jambalaya Festival in Gonzales is looking good, and evening headline acts at Bayou Country Superfest should be uninterrupted by weather. If you are traveling to the coast, rain chances and high temperatures will both be slightly lower. Let’s keep a few things in for a safe Memorial Day Weekend. Stay hydrated; apply sunscreen frequently as burn times will be less than 15 minutes, and if there is a stray thunderstorm, head inside until you can no longer hear thunder. Enjoy!

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: Once again today, while heat energy will be plentiful, an upper ridge, weaker jet stream and drier mid-levels will make the development of showers and thunderstorms a tough proposition. An ongoing squall line in Eastern Texas may stray into Louisiana, but will meet a harsh environment for maintenance and should weaken considerably. At most, a broken line of showers may limp through the region.  Overnight into Saturday, the region will come as close as it will to a flattening trough in the Midwest. The axis of this trough lining up with Louisiana may result in some isolated showers and thunderstorms into Saturday Afternoon —but the past few model runs have shown a flatter trough, displaced farther north and thus lower and lower rain chances. For Sunday and Monday, a weak surface high pressure and very calm upper level conditions will likely result in the Central Gulf Coast staying entirely dry. Not much change is expected into the middle of next week. High temperatures will be fairly steady near 90 degrees. Days featuring more sunshine will obviously top out on the warm side while areas that receive rogue showers may hang on to slightly lower numbers. 

The Tropics: An area of showers and thunderstorms northeast of The Bahamas continues to look more organized. The National Hurricane Center has given the system an 80% chance of further tropical or sub-tropical development over the next 48 hours. Most of the forecast models bring the system up to low-end tropical storm status, putting the disturbance on a northwesterly track toward the Carolinas. Residents and vacationers along the Southeastern U.S. Coast may expect rip currents along with showers and thunderstorms. If the system indeed reached tropical storm status, the name will be Bonnie. No matter the outcome, there will be no impact to the Gulf Coast. Additionally, it is worth mentioning that in previous seasons, April or May named storms have not served as the pre-cursor to a more active season. Over a 50 year period through 2015, 14 hurricane seasons brought a total of 17 early-season depressions, storms and hurricanes. Looking at the simple numbers alone, there are no trends. Actually, 7 of the 14 years finished with fewer named storms than the averages-12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

--Josh

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