BLOG: from Baton Rouge to Gonzales to the coast
Your Memorial Day Weekend will be hot and humid with some afternoon sun. Another unsettled pattern is around the corner and expected to begin on Monday.
Today and Tonight: For your Friday, winds will be southerly and ample sunshine will allow afternoon temperatures to climb further into the 80s. Some locations could even flirt with 90 degrees. Overnight, dew point temperatures and therefore humidity will climb quickly and lows will not be able to escape the 70s.
The LSU Softball team will play in the Super Regional in Tallahassee, Fl. today and tomorrow with mostly sunny and warm weather slated. If Sunday’s game is necessary, similar weather will carry over.
Those leaving the Baton Rouge area for a coastal destination will enjoy mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the low 80s. You will notice pretty stiff southwesterly winds of 10-15mph. Water temperatures will be in the upper 70s with waves running 1 to 3 feet.
Up Next: Late May heat and humidity will arrive for the Memorial Day Weekend. Afternoon temperatures should make a run at 90 degrees on both Saturday and Sunday. Sunday morning will be sticky and uncomfortable in the mid 70s. The chance for a “pop-up” afternoon shower is back by Sunday. Then on Monday, a cold front will move into the area and stall out. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected over the next several days as the Gulf breeze collides with the front. Afternoon action should therefore keep high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
THE SCIENCE: As a surface high translates east on Friday, return flow will result in southerly winds transporting moisture back into the lower levels. Dew points will climb from the low 60s to the low 70s by Saturday. With plenty of sunshine, high temperatures will be returning to the upper 80s and low 90s with low temperatures uncomfortably perched in the low to mid 70s. The next dip in the jet stream is expected to occur around Sunday with a 250mb trough digging from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic. The 500mb trough is not as exaggerated. Still, the features will guide a weak cold front through the area from north to south. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible near the end of the weekend but in all likelihood, the better chances will hold off until Monday when frontal forcing is most prevalent. Because the upper level steering lifts north of the area, the cold front will likely be abandoned over the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Forecast models latch on to this scenario and keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Given the time of year, it does become more and more likely that fronts don’t fully cross into the Gulf, which can lead to more active stretches such as this. Most of the action will occur during the midday hours as daytime heating provides the most energy and instability.