Big changes expected this weekend
Friday will feel like May. By Sunday, it will feel like March!
Today and Tonight: Much less action is expected on Friday, though a stray shower remains possible. Skies will be partly sunny with highs climbing into the upper 80s. Partly cloudy skies will continue overnight with lows in the upper 60s.
Forecast rain coverage verified well on Thursday. The WBRZ Weather Team projected 30 percent of the area to pick up measurable rain during the afternoon hours primarily in central parishes and counties. Reviewing locations that registered precipitation, rain appears to have fallen in about a third of the area. Most of the action was in and around Baton Rouge—heaviest in Ascension and Livingston Parishes.
Up Next: A cold front will move into the area on Saturday. With this will come a broken line of rain and thunderstorms between late morning and late afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center is carrying a “marginal risk”, but at this time, there is no major cause for concern with severe weather. While outdoor events will not be a total washout, you might plan for an interruption as the line passes—especially if there is lightning. Temperatures will tumble pretty quickly out of the 70s and into the 60s behind the front; take a jacket if you plan on going to the LSU spring game. Sunday will be partly sunny, breezy and cooler with high temperatures struggling for 70 degrees. Expect a cool start to Monday with lows near 50. As sunshine carries through the middle of next week, temperatures will moderate.
THE SCIENCE: A weak upper ridge will provide some additional capping on the atmosphere today resulting in fewer showers and thunderstorms. A low tapped shower could pop further south where marine convergence boundaries take shape. As a result of the ridge and additional sunshine, high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s. A longwave trough will dig into the Southeast on Saturday with a cold front at the surface. Right now, the positive tilt of this trough and very low shear indicates the severe weather threat will be very low. There will be moisture and instability available for some downpours and possibly gusty wind as a line of showers and thunderstorms move through. Timing appears to be during the afternoon hours. Once the line blows through, winds will quickly shift to the northwest and cold air advection will begin. Lingering low level moisture and a second upper trough axis may result in some clouds persisting through part of Sunday. High temperatures will likely struggle to reach 70 degrees with overnight lows into Monday running about 5-10 degrees below average, bottoming out around 50 degrees. Below average numbers will continue through Tuesday Morning before a moderating trend continues into the middle of next week. The next chance for showers doesn’t appear until at least the end of next week, possibly beyond.